基于灰色残差马尔可夫预测的EPC项目成本风险动态预警研究

A study on dynamic cost risk early warning for EPC projects based on grey residual Markov prediction

摘要

对于EPC项目而言，管理者对项目成本超支风险的精准判断和有效防控对于确保项目预算的严格执行和项目最终盈利水平至关重要。然而，现有EPC项目成本风险管控体系仍然存在预警不及时、准确性不强等问题。为提升EPC项目全生命周期成本超支风险的预测和评估精度，综合马尔可夫模型与灰色预测模型的优势，对灰色预测模型的残差结果进行马尔可夫二次修正，构建了基于灰色残差马尔可夫预测的EPC项目成本风险动态预警模型。以某EPC项目实际案例数据为例，验证所提出的模型在预测项目全生命周期成本超支风险方面的高精度和有效性。案例分析结果显示，相比于传统的灰色预测模型，灰色残差马尔可夫预测模型能够更加准确地预测EPC项目成本超支水平，平均残差从4.27%降低至1.74%。研究成果丰富了EPC项目成本风险管理的理论框架，同时为管理者在EPC项目全生命周期各阶段有效判断项目成本超支风险提供实践支持。

Abstract

For engineering, procurement and construction(EPC) projects, the precise assessment and effective mitigation of cost overrun risks by managers are crucial for ensuring strict budget adherence and achieving the project's final profitability. However, existing cost risk management systems for EPC projects still suffer from issues such as delayed warnings and limited accuracy. To enhance the prediction and evaluation accuracy of cost overrun risks throughout the entire lifecycle of EPC projects, the advantages of Markov models and grey prediction models was integrated, applying a secondary Markov correction to the residuals of the grey prediction model. A dynamic early warning model for EPC project cost risks based on grey residual Markov prediction is constructed. Using actual case data from an EPC project, the proposed model's high accuracy and effectiveness in predicting cost overrun risks throughout the project lifecycle are validated. The case analysis result demonstrate that, compared to traditional grey prediction models, the grey residual markov prediction model offers significantly more accurate predictions of EPC project cost overruns, with the average residual error reduced from 4.27% to 1.74%. The findings not only enrich the theoretical framework for cost risk management in EPC projects but also provide practical support for managers in effectively assessing cost overrun risks at various stages of the project lifecycle.

关键词

成本预警 / 灰色残差马尔可夫预测 / EPC项目

Key words

cost warning / grey residual markov prediction / EPC project

Author summay

李梦楠(1998—), 女, 博士研究生, 主要从事工程项目成本管理、决策管理研究。E-mail: [e-mail]

基金资助

中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(202103551)