基于随机森林的长江大保护工程建设协同状态评价方法研究

Research on collaborative status evaluation methods for Yangtze River Protection Projects based on random forest

摘要

长江大保护工程建设系统较为复杂，其协同状态难以通过工程建设信息直接评价，现有方法依赖于参建人员的主观评价。基于役使原理，通过快变量反推序参量，提出一种基于随机森林的工程建设协同状态评价方法。通过工程调研与文献分析，选取利益满足程度、信息匹配程度两个序参量和施工返工次数等七个快变量，构建序参量和快变量之间的定量关系并进行统计分析。接着构建训练集和测试集，建立利益、信息两个序参量的预测模型，分别通过十折交叉验证法、测试集验证对模型进行验证与评价，建立序参量与协同状态匹配规则作为评价的依据。这种序参量与协同状态的匹配关系，将预测得到的序参量值与子系统协同状态进行匹配，得到对应子系统的协同状态，为工程建设协同状态评价提供了依据。

Abstract

The construction system of the Yangtze River Protection Project is relatively complex, and its synergistic state is difficult to be evaluated directly through the engineering construction information, and the existing method rely on the subjective evaluation of the participants. Based on the principle of servitude, a random forest-based evaluation method of the project construction synergistic state was proposed through the fast variable inversion of the sequential parameter. Through engineering research and literature analysis, we select two ordinal covariates, namely, the degree of interest satisfaction and the degree of information matching, and seven fast variables, such as the number of construction reworks, to construct the quantitative relationship between the ordinal covariates and the fast variables, and then carry out statistical analysis. Then, the training set and test set are constructed to establish the prediction model of the two ordinal covariates of interest and information, and the model is verified and evaluated by the ten-fold cross-validation method and the test set verification, respectively, and the matching rule between the ordinal covariates and the collaborative state is established as the basis of evaluation. This matching relationship between ordinal parameters and synergistic state matches the predicted values of ordinal parameters with the synergistic state of subsystems, and obtains the synergistic state of the corresponding subsystems, which provides a basis for the evaluation of the synergistic state of engineering construction.

关键词

长江大保护工程 / 协同评价 / 序参量 / 随机森林

Key words

Yangtze River Protection Project / collaborative evaluation / order parameters / random forest

Author summay

杨国兴(1975—), 男, 高级工程师, 学士, 主要从事工程管理等方面工作。E-mail: yang_ [e-mail]

基金资助

中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(202103551)