长江中游水文系统对三峡水库调度的生态响应及协同调控研究

Study on ecological response and coordinated regulation of the hydrological system in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River to the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir

摘要

三峡调度深刻影响着长江中游水文情况，以洞庭湖为例，取2010—2020及2022年极端干旱资料，用计算标准化降水指数(SPI)、回归等方法分析降水、温度、水位演变及干旱响应。结果显示：(1)2010—2020年流域降水微增，温度持平；澧水16.5~17.5℃;湖水位23.5~26.8 m波动上升。(2)SPI为-0.5~1.0,正常55%,轻旱30%;年内先干后湿。(3)水位与降水、径流正相关，与温度负相关。(4)2022年6月水位27.3 m后骤降，1—6月由湿转中旱、重旱；4、5、7月水位与SPI显著相关，呈“夏旱”特征。研究可为农业减灾、三峡-湖泊协同调控提供依据。

Abstract

The Three Gorges Dam's operation has profoundly influenced hydrological conditions in the middle Yangtze River basin. Using data from extreme droughts spanning 2010—2020 and 2022, precipitation, temperature, water level trends, and drought responses was studied through SPI(Seasonal Precipitation Index) analysis and regression method. Key findings include:(1)Precipitation showed marginal increases during 2010—2020 with stable temperatures, while the Lishui River 16.5~17.5 ℃ experienced water level 23.5~26.8 m fluctuations.(2)SPI values ranged between-0.5 to 1.0, indicating normal conditions(55%) and mild drought(30%), with annual patterns showing initial aridity followed by recovery.(3)Water levels demonstrated positive correlations with precipitation and runoff but negative correlations with temperature.(4)June 2022 saw a sudden drop from 27.3 m to 28.3 m, followed by moderate to severe drought from January to June. Notably, April, May, and July water levels showed significant SPI correlation, reflecting summer drought characteristics. The research provides critical insights for agricultural disaster prevention and integrated Three Gorges-lake basin management strategies.

关键词

洞庭湖流域 / 水文响应 / 干旱情势 / 三峡水库调度

Key words

Dongting Lake basin / hydrological response / drought situation / Three Gorges Reservoir dispatch

Author summay

郭荣鑫(1983—), 男, 高级工程师, 硕士, 主要从事水库工程的地质灾害防治、风险预测与管理研究。E-mail: [e-mail]