基于深度学习的时序预测模型在水文报汛数据异常检测中的应用研究

Application of deep learning time series models for anomaly detection in hydrological reporting data

摘要

为进一步提升水文报汛数据质量管理体系，实现水文报汛数据实时异常监测，拟结合深度学习算法在水文专业的交叉应用，通过分析水文报汛数据的时序特征，结合了卷积神经网络(CNN)和长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)来增强对特征的处理，同时考虑河道水量传播过程，融合上下游水位、流量数据中隐含的空间关联特征，以实现多步时序预测，挑选长江流域上中下游典型监测站3年的数据构建数据集并进行模拟，结果表明，构建的CNN-LSTM时序预测模型在水位决定系数(R²)达到0.77,流量模拟的决定系数(R²)达到0.84,能较好拟合水文预测结果；在此基础上构建了“预测-残差-判别”一体化的水文数据异常检测框架，在三峡水库的水位模拟中异常值检出率为100%,决定系数(R²)达到0.991,有效实现报汛异常值检测，能为提高流域水文报汛数据质量提供智能算法基础。

Abstract

To further improve the quality management system of hydrological flood reporting data and achieve real-time anomaly monitoring, this study explores the cross-disciplinary application of deep learning algorithms in hydrology. By analyzing the time-series characteristics of hydrological reporting data, a hybrid model combining Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM) networks is proposed to enhance feature extraction and processing. Furthermore, considering the physical process of river flow, spatial correlation features embedded in upstream and downstream water level and flow data are integrated to enable multi-step time-series forecasting. A dataset comprising three years of monitoring data from representative stations across the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was constructed for simulation. The result demonstrate that the proposed CNN-LSTM model achieves a coefficient of determination(R²) of 0.77 for water level prediction and 0.84 for flow simulation, indicating good performance in hydrological forecasting. Building upon this, an integrated anomaly detection framework based on “prediction-residual-discrimination” is developed. In the case study of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the anomaly detection rate reached 100%, with an R² of 0.991 for water level simulation, effectively enabling the identification of abnormal flood reporting data. This study provides a robust intelligent algorithmic foundation for enhancing the quality of hydrological reporting data in river basins.

关键词

水位预测 / 流量预测 / 卷积神经网络 / 多步时序预测 / 异常检测

Key words

water level prediction / flow prediction / convolutional neural network(CNN) / multi-step time series forecasting / anomaly detection

Author summay

秦洪亮(1995—), 男, 助理工程师, 硕士, 主要从事水利信息化研究工作。E-mail: [e-mail]

基金资助

中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目资助(0704218)

国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3209103)

国家自然科学基金项目(U2340211)