基于链式传递模式的中小流域堤坝群风险评估模型

Risk assessment model for dam groups in small and medium-sized watersheds based on chain transfer mode

摘要

堤坝群系统由多条链式结构串并联复合组成，灾变风险在堤坝群系统中的传递过程具有明显的链式效应。阐述了堤坝群系统的风险链式传递模式，并将相邻单元堤坝间的风险影响模型引入到堤坝群中，构造了中小流域堤坝群风险链式效应分析评价模型，并通过层次分析法及专家系统综合确定了堤坝间风险链式效应系数和风险级别。该方法为堤坝群的风险评估和管理提供了新的路径。

Abstract

The dam group system is composed of multiple chain structures in series and parallel, the transmission process of disaster risk in the dam group system has a significant chain effect. On the risk chain transmission mode of the dam group system, the risk impact model between adjacent units of dams into the dam group is elaborated. A risk chain effect analysis and evaluation model for dam groups of small and medium-sized watersheds is constructed, and finally, the risk chain effect coefficient and risk level between dams are determined through the analytic hierarchy process and expert system synthesis. The method proposed provides a new path for risk assessment and management of dam groups.

关键词

堤坝群 / 风险评估 / 链式传递 / 效应系数

Key words

dam group / small and medium-sized watersheds / risk assessment / chain transmission / effect coefficient

Author summay

曾 欣(1989—), 女, 高级工程师, 硕士, 主要从事水利工程研究。E-mail: [e-mail]

基金资助

国家重点研发计划重点专项(2022YFC3005505)