近坝库岸边坡安全监控及风险预警研究

Study on safety monitoring and risk warning method of the near-basin reservoir bank slope

摘要

近坝库岸边坡一旦失稳破坏势必会对其邻近水工建筑物及周边环境造成严重影响。开展近坝库岸边坡安全监控及失稳破坏后的风险预警对保障水工建筑物的安全运行具有重要意义。为此，提出一套近坝库岸边坡安全监控及风险预警方法，选取变形监测量及其变形速率和边坡安全系数作为近坝库岸边坡安全的关键监控指标，建立“三级预警(正常、轻度异常、异常)+一级险情”的监控分级标准，构建基于Copula函数融合多测点位移监测信息的近坝库岸边坡整体安全预警指标；基于滑坡涌浪分析，依托滑坡方量及坝前浪高与水电站自动调节出力系统所允许浪高的相互关系，建立近坝库岸边坡失稳破坏后对水电站运行调度所产生的风险分级及预警等级。该方法不仅考虑了近坝库岸边坡自身的安全监控问题，还考虑了边坡失稳破坏后产生的滑坡涌浪风险在传递过程中的降等降级问题，可为近坝库岸边坡的安全监控及风险预警提供参考和借鉴。

Abstract

Once the near-dam reservoir bank slope becomes unstable and collapses, it will inevitably have a significant impact on the adjacent hydraulic structures and the surrounding environment. Conducting safety monitoring and risk early warning for the near-dam reservoir bank slope after instability and failure is of great significance for ensuring the safe operation of hydraulic structures. Therefore, this paper proposes a set of safety monitoring and risk early warning method for the near-dam reservoir bank slope. Deformation monitoring quantities, their deformation rates, and the safety factor of the slope are selected as the key monitoring indicators for the safety of the near-dam reservoir bank slope. A monitoring classification standard of "three-level early warning(normal, mild abnormal, abnormal) + one-level emergency" is established. An overall safety early warning index for the near-dam reservoir bank slope based on the Copula function and the fusion of multi-point displacement monitoring information is constructed. Based on the analysis of landslide-induced waves, relying on the relationship between the landslide volume and the wave height in front of the dam and the allowable wave height of the automatic regulation output system of the hydropower station, a risk classification and early warning level for the operation and dispatching of the hydropower station after the instability and failure of the near-dam reservoir bank slope is established. This method not only considers the safety monitoring issues of the near-dam reservoir bank slope itself, but also takes into account the downgrading and down-classification of the landslide-induced wave risk during the transmission process after the slope instability and failure. It can provide reference and guidance for the safety monitoring and risk early warning of the near-dam reservoir bank slope.

关键词

近坝库岸 / 边坡 / 滑坡涌浪 / 安全监控 / 风险预警

Key words

near-dam reservoir bank / slope / landslide-induced waves / safety monitoring / risk early warning

Author summay

曹海(1987—), 男, 高级工程师, 学士, 主要从事水电站调度运行研究。E-mail: [e-mail]

基金资助

中国长江电力股份有限公司资助项目(Z242302042)