气候变化下山美水库流域旱涝急转时空演变规律

张湲婕; 宋铁燕; 陈莹; 陈兴伟; 高路; 刘梅冰; 邓海军

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.01.005

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2026, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (1) : 55 -67. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.01.005

复杂灾害链与水旱巨灾风险评估专栏

气候变化下山美水库流域旱涝急转时空演变规律

张湲婕 ¹ ,
宋铁燕 ¹ ,
陈莹 ¹^,²^,³ ,
陈兴伟 ¹^,²^,³ ,
高路 ¹^,²^,³ ,
刘梅冰 ¹^,²^,³ ,
邓海军 ¹^,²^,³

作者信息 +

The temporal and spatial evolution of drought-flood abrupt alternation in the Shanmei Reservoir Basin under climate change

Yuanjie ZHANG ¹ ,
Tieyan SONG ¹ ,
Ying CHEN ¹^,²^,³ ,
Xingwei CHEN ¹^,²^,³ ,
Lu GAO ¹^,²^,³ ,
Meibing LIU ¹^,²^,³ ,
Haijun DENG ¹^,²^,³

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】山美水库流域属于亚热带季风气候,受热带气旋、副热带高压等天气系统及复杂地形的影响,旱涝急转(DFAA)事件频发,严重威胁流域水安全。准确识别和预测全球变化下山美水库流域旱涝急转时空演变规律,对于区域防灾减灾具有重要意义。【方法】以山美水库流域为研究对象,采用以12 d为前期降水影响日数的标准化降水指数(SPI-12 d),探究研究区1980—2018年旱涝急转的时空变化特征,并结合CMIP6多模式集合平均,在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下预测21世纪流域旱涝急转的时空演变规律。【结果】结果显示:(1)研究区旱转涝(DTF)和涝转旱(FTD)的频次呈先显著增加后缓慢减少趋势,DTF强度显著增加,FTD强度显著下降。DTF主要集中在1月、7月及9月至12月,FTD则集中在8月至11月。(2)DTF频次和强度的高值区位于南部;FTD频次和强度的高值区分别位于东北部和东南部。(3)未来DTF频次和强度均呈增加趋势,且在SSP5-8.5情景下增幅更大;FTD在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下频次分别呈不显著的下降和上升趋势,强度均呈下降趋势。DTF在2月和12月增加最显著,而FTD则在1月、8月和10月增加最显著。(4)未来研究区中南部发生DTF和FTD的频次和强度均呈增加趋势,发生旱涝急转的风险增加。【结论】山美水库DFAA事件的影响整体呈增加趋势,研究区中南部是高风险区;相对于FTD,DTF的风险更大。研究结果可为DFAA的监测与应对提供科学基础。

Abstract

[Objective] The Shanmei Reservoir Basin, located in a subtropical monsoon climate zone, is frequently affected by tropical cyclones, subtropical high-pressure systems, and complex topography, leading to frequent drought-flood abrupt alternation(DFAA) events that severely threaten regional water security. Accurately identifying and predicting the spatiotemporal evolution of DFAA under global change is crucial for regional disaster prevention and mitigation. [Methods] Shanmei Reservoir Basin was taken as study area. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index with a 12-day antecedent precipitation period(SPI-12d), the spatiotemporal characteristics of DFAA from 1980 to 2018 were analyzed. Additionally, CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections under SSP2-4. 5 and SSP5-8. 5 scenarios were employed to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of DFAA in the 21st century. [Results] Key findings include:(1) The frequency of drought-to-flood(DTF) and flood-to-drought(FTD) events initially increased significantly and then decreased gradually. DTF intensity rose significantly, while FTD intensity declined. DTF events were concentrated in January, July, and September-December, whereas FTD events mainly occurred from August to November.(2) High-frequency and high-intensity DTF areas were located in the southern watershed, while high-frequency FTD areas were in the northeast and high-intensity FTD areas in the southeast.( 3) Future projections indicate increasing DTF frequency and intensity, with greater increases under SSP5-8. 5. FTD frequency showed insignificant declines under SSP2-4. 5and slight rises under SSP5-8. 5, while FTD intensity decreased. DTF increases were most pronounced in February and December, whereas FTD increases were notable in January, August, and October.(4) The central and southern watershed will face higher risks, with both DTF and FTD frequency and intensity projected to increase. [Conclusion] DFAA impacts in the Shanmei Reservoir Basin are intensifying overall, with the central-southern region as a high-risk zone. DTF poses a greater threat than FTD. These findings provide a scientific basis for DFAA monitoring and response.

关键词

旱涝急转 / 气候变化 / 标准化降水指数 / 山美水库流域 / 水安全 / 时空变化 / 干旱

Key words

drought-flood abrupt alternation(DFAA) / climate change / standardized precipitation index(SPI) / Shanmei Reservoir Basin / water safety / spatiotemporal changes / drought