极端天气应急管理协同治理框架及实现路径研究

Research on collaborative governance framework and implementation pathways for emergency management of extreme weather events

摘要

【目的】随着全球气候变化影响,我国极端灾害天气呈多发、频发、重发趋势,给社会发展带来严重危害和损失。研究发现,目前我国极端天气应急管理仍存在“应急管理体制机制有待完善、气象预报预警技术尚有短板、社会综合防灾减灾能力亟需提升”等问题。针对极端天气应急管理协同治理的研究有助于提升我国气象灾害应急管理工作水平。【理论】本文在理论建构方面,提出由“气象预报-政府决策-社会响应”三位一体构成的“三方协同模型”框架,为极端天气协同治理提供了新的思路和解决方案。【方法】提出“四维协同治理框架”,实现从单一主体视角向多元主体协同视角的转变。“四维协同治理架构”从跨体系协同治理机制、数字化治理范式转型、开放式协同创新网络、前瞻性防御制度供给等四个维度进行研究,为极端天气协同治理提供了一种新的思路和模式。【结论】提出极端天气应急管理协同治理的实现路径为:通过“理念前置、预警前置和场景前置”措施推动极端天气灾害防御关口前移;通过“政府内部协同、部门—区域协同和政府—社会协同”措施实现极端天气应急管理高质量应对;通过“互动感应、应急叫应和有效响应”措施促进极端天气应急管理防灾减灾成效最大化。

Abstract

[Objective] Under the influence of global climate change, extreme weather events in China have shown increasing frequency, intensity, and recurrence, posing serious threats and losses to social development. Research has shown that there are still problems in China's emergency management of extreme weather events, including “inadequate emergency management systems and mechanisms, shortcomings in meteorological forecasting and early warning technologies, and the urgent need to enhance social disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities”. Research on the collaborative governance of extreme weather emergency management can help improve the level of meteorological disaster emergency management in China. [Theory] In terms of theoretical construction, a “tripartite collaboration model” framework composed of “meteorological forecasting-government decision-making-social response” was proposed, providing new insights and solutions for the collaborative governance of extreme weather events. [Methods] A “four-dimensional collaborative governance framework” was proposed to achieve the shift from a single-subject perspective to a multi-subject collaborative perspective. The framework examined four dimensions: crosssystem collaborative governance mechanisms, digital governance paradigm transformation, open collaborative innovation networks, and proactive defense system provision, providing a new approach and model for the collaborative governance of extreme weather events. [Conclusion] The implementation pathways for collaborative governance of extreme weather emergency management are proposed as follows: advancing disaster prevention through “conceptual pre-positioning, early warning prepositioning, and scenario pre-positioning”; achieving high-quality emergency response through “internal government coordination, inter-departmental and inter-regional coordination, and government-society coordination”; and maximizing the effectiveness of disaster prevention and mitigation through “interactive sensing, emergency coordination, and effective response”.

关键词

极端天气 / 应急管理 / 协同治理 / 分析框架 / 实现路径 / 影响因素

Key words

extreme weather / emergency management / collaborative governance / analytical framework / implementation pathway / influencing factors

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(41801064)

中国气象局软科学研究项目(2023ZDIANXM25)

中国气象局软科学研究项目(2025KKXMS19)

中国气象局气象干部培训学院科研项目(2025CMATCZDIAN08)