水库塌岸防治与风险管控研究综述:现状及展望

A review of prevention and risk management of reservoir bank collapse: Current status and prospects

摘要

【目的】水库塌岸是水库库区典型的工程地质灾害,直接威胁沿岸居民生命财产及基础设施安全,其防治与风险管控是水利工程领域的重大挑战之一。【方法】系统梳理国内外水库塌岸研究现状,首先阐明其成因机制与典型破坏模式;进而综述从勘查识别到预测评价的技术方法体系,辨析图解法、数学分析法与数值模拟等方法的适用性;论述融合工程治理与生态修复的协同防治措施,以及“天-空-地-水”专业监测与群测群防技术体系。在此基础上,从管理视角构建以风险评估为科学依据、以“预报-预警-预演-预案”(“四预”)为主线的水库塌岸风险管控系统框架,详细阐述其闭环管理流程与实施策略。【结果】结果表明,水库塌岸成因复杂,库水位波动是主导外部触发因素,岸坡的地质结构与岩土体性质是控制其稳定性的内在基础;塌岸识别与预测技术呈现经验性与机理模型融合的趋势,数值模拟与机器学习等机理与数据驱动方法,代表了高精度与智能化预测的发展方向;其防治措施从单一的工程措施向“工程-生态”协同治理转变,生态护坡等措施正日益受到重视;监测预警体系已发展为“群专结合、立体协同”的成熟范式;风险管控初步形成了以“四预”为主线、以风险评估为科学依据的系统性管理框架,实现了从被动应急向主动防控的战略转变,显著提升了水库库区的综合风险管理能力。【结论】当前对水位、降雨、渗流、地质构造等多因素动态耦合作用机制的认识仍不充分,需深化多场耦合机理研究,发展融合物理机理与数据驱动的“灰箱”模型,推动预测技术智能化与标准化;攻克复杂条件下的塌岸预测难题;应研究植被根系固土机理的量化模型、生态护坡材料的耐久性及其与工程结构的协同工作机理,发展生态友好的韧性防治技术;构建智慧管控“大脑”,实现风险“四预”的闭环管理。

Abstract

[Objective] Reservoir bank collapse is a typical engineering geological hazard in reservoir areas, directly threatening the lives and property of residents and the safety of infrastructure along the banks. Its prevention and risk management represent a major challenge in the field of hydraulic engineering. [Methods] The current state of research was systematically reviewed on reservoir bank collapse domestically and internationally. It begins by elucidating its causative mechanisms and typical failure modes. It then summarizes the technical method ology system, from investigation and identification to prediction and evaluation,analyzing the applicability of various method, including graphical, mathematical analysis, and numerical simulation approaches.The paper discusses integrated prevention and mitigation measures that combine engineering governance with ecological restoration, as well as the technical system encompassing professional “ sky-air-ground-water ” integrated monitoring and community-based monitoring, forecasting, and prevention. Building on this foundation and from a management perspective, this paper constructs a systematic risk management framework for reservoir bank collapse. This framework uses risk assessment as its scientific basis and the “Four Pre” s(Forecasting, Early Warning, Simulation, and Preparedness) as its core process, detailing its closed-loop management process and implementation strategies. [Results] The result indicate that the causes of reservoir bank collapse are complex. Reservoir water level fluctuation is the dominant external triggering factor, while the geological structure of the bank slope and the properties of the rock and soil mass form the internal basis controlling its stability. Identification and prediction technologies are showing a trend of integration between empirical and mechanistic models. Mechanistic and data-driven method such as numerical simulation and machine learning represent the development direction of high-precision and intelligent prediction. Prevention and mitigation measures are shifting from single engineering solutions to “ engineering-ecological ”collaborative governance, with measures like ecological slope protection receiving increasing attention. The monitoring and early warning system has evolved into a mature paradigm characterized by the “ integration of professional and community-based monitoring” and “stereoscopic collaboration”. Risk management has preliminarily formed a systematic management framework using the “Four Pre” s as the main line and risk assessment as the scientific basis, achieving a strategic shift from passive response to active prevention and control, significantly enhancing the comprehensive risk management capability of reservoir areas. [Conclusion] Current understanding of the dynamic coupling mechanisms involving multiple factors such as water level,rainfall, seepage, and geological structure remains insufficient. There is a need to deepen research on multi-field coupling mechanisms, develop “ grey-box” models that integrate physical mechanisms and data-driven approaches, and promote the intellectualization and standardization of prediction technologies to overcome the challenges of predicting bank collapse under complex conditions. Research on quantitative models of vegetation root soil reinforcement mechanisms, the durability of ecological slope protection materials, and their synergistic mechanisms with engineering structures should be conducted to develop ecofriendly and resilient prevention and mitigation technologies. It is essential to build an intelligent management “brain” to achieve closed-loop management of the “Four Pre” s for risk.

关键词

水库塌岸 / 风险识别 / 监测预警 / 防治措施 / 风险管控 / 地质灾害 / 影响因素

Key words

reservoir bank collapse / risk identification / monitoring and early warning / prevention and mitigation measures / risk management / geological hazard / influence factor

基金资助

国家自然科学基金青年项目(42407221)