江苏省水资源-经济社会-生态环境系统耦合协调时空演变及影响因素研究

Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of coupling coordination among water resources-economic society-ecological environment system in Jiangsu Province

摘要

【目的】近年来，江苏省在经济社会快速发展的同时，水资源约束趋紧与生态环境压力不断加大，区域发展面临资源利用与环境保护双重挑战。为充分认识江苏省水资源、经济社会与生态环境系统的协调发展状况，【方法】构建了针对江苏省地域特征的水资源-经济社会-生态环境系统耦合协调度评价指标体系，并基于信息敏感性方法对指标体系进行优化，引入耦合协调度模型与灰色关联分析法，构建了系统的耦合协调研究框架。最后基于该框架测算了自最严格水资源管理制度实施以来(2012—2023年)江苏省水资源-经济社会-生态环境系统的耦合协调水平及其主要影响因子。【结果】结果显示：基于信息敏感性方法将28个初选指标筛选为21个指标，保障了指标体系科学性和区域适宜性；江苏省2012—2023年水资源-经济社会-生态环境系统综合评价指数从0.23提升至0.72;江苏省耦合协调水平呈现稳定增长态势，耦合协调类型由勉强协调上升到高级协调，且呈“南高北低”的空间分布特征；全年供水总量、一般公共预算收入和城市污水处理率分别是各子系统中影响耦合协调度的最主要影响因子。【结论】结果表明：2012—2023年江苏省水资源-经济社会-生态环境系统耦合协调度逐渐提升，系统间的耦合性、协调性逐渐增强，但部分区域仍具有较大发展潜力。研究结果揭示了江苏省水资源-经济社会-生态环境系统的时空演变规律与驱动机制，可为区域水资源精细化治理与绿色可持续发展提供参考。

Abstract

[Objective] In recent years, alongside rapid economic and social development in Jiangsu Province, water resource constraints have tightened and ecological environment pressures has continued to intensify, posing dual challenges of resource utilization and environmental protection to regional development. To comprehensively understand the coordinated development status of the water resources, economic society, and ecological environment systems in Jiangsu Province, the coupling coordination relationship among the subsystems is examined. [Methods] An evaluation index system for the coupling coordination degree(CCD) of the water resources-economic society-ecological environment(WR-ES-EE) system was constructed based on the regional characteristics of Jiangsu Province. The index system was optimized using the information sensitivity method, and a systematic research framework for coupling coordination was established by introducing the CCD model and grey relational analysis method. Based on this framework, the CCD of the WR-ES-EE system in Jiangsu Province and its main influencing factors were measured for the period from 2012 to 2023, following the implementation of the most stringent water resources management system. [Results] The findings indicated that based on the information sensitivity method, the 28 initially selected indicators were reduced to 21, ensuring the scientific soundness and regional suitability of the index system. The comprehensive evaluation index of the WR-ES-EE system in Jiangsu Province increased from 0.23 in 2012 to 0.72 in 2023. The CCD exhibited a stable upward trend, with the coordination type rising from barely coordinated to highly coordinated, and showed a spatial distribution pattern of “high in the south and low in the north”. The total annual water supply, general public budget revenue, and urban sewage treatment rate were identified as the most dominant factors influencing the CCD of each subsystem. [Conclusion] The result show that from 2012 to 2023, the CCD of the WR-ES-EE system in Jiangsu Province gradually increased, the coupling and coordination among systems were progressively enhanced, but some areas still exhibited considerable development potential. The result reveal the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of the WR-ES-EE system in Jiangsu Province, and provide a reference for refined regional water resources management and green sustainable development.

关键词

水资源-经济社会-生态环境 / 耦合协调 / 灰色关联分析 / 江苏省 / 时空演变 / 可持续发展 / 水资源约束 / 信息敏感性方法

Key words

water resources-economic society-ecological environment system / coupling coordination / grey relational analysis / Jiangsu Province / spatiotemporal evolution / sustainable development / water resource constraints / information sensitivity methods

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(52121006)

水利标准制修订项目(126302001000180011)

水利标准制修订项目(126302001000210005)

自然资源部国土空间规划体系重大问题研究项目(20210103)

江苏省国土资源研究中心(智库) 开放合作项目(ZK202106)

江苏省国土资源研究中心(智库) 开放合作项目(ZK22003)

江苏省自然资源科技项目(2021003)

江苏省自然资源科技项目(2022022)

江苏省“六大人才高峰”高层次人才项目(JNHB-068)

南京水利科学研究院研究生学位论文基金(Yy525004)