基于人-水-城联动制约关系的宁夏“以水定城”方法研究

Study on “water-based city development” scheme in Ningxia based on interdependent constraints of human-water-city relationship

摘要

【目的】为探究城市快速发展过程的水资源约束作用，分析人-水-城联动制约关系，研究人-城和水-城两条分析路径的耦合机制，为合理确定城市发展规模提供参考。【方法】以宁夏为研究区，结合2006—2022年城市发展历史数据及水资源供给约束条件，分别利用人-城MP指数、人口规模和经济结构的二元回归分析和土地综合用水量指标法，分析建成区面积合理范围，均衡水资源刚性约束与城市人口、经济发展需求，确定“以水定城”方案。【结果】2025年宁夏全区城市用水约束为10.01亿m³,城区人口为474.84万人，计算得到水资源约束下全区建成区合理控制面积为763.33 km²,相对现状(2022年)可增加85.87 km²。按照“以水定城”控制要求，全区单位建成区面积用水量均值需达到1.41 m³/m²,相对现状提升79.7%;城区人均用水量均值为0.43 m³/d,相对现状提升23.1%,城市用水集约度明显提高。【结论】研究表明，城市发展与水资源条件密切相关，通过“以水定城”方案分析城市合理规模与水资源约束关系，能够有效平衡城市人口增长、经济发展与水资源可持续利用之间的关系，为水资源紧缺地区的城市科学发展提供理论支持与实践指导，促进人口、资源、环境协调。

Abstract

[Objective] To explore the constraints of water resources during the rapid urban development, analyze the interdependent relationships between human, water, and city, and investigate the coupling mechanisms of the human-city and water-city pathways, thereby providing references for determining a reasonable scale for urban development. [Methods] Taking Ningxia as the study area, historical urban development data from 2006 to 2022 and the constraints of urban water supply were integrated. The human-city MP index, binary regression analysis of population size and economic structure, and the comprehensive land water use indicator method were used to analyze the reasonable range of built-up area. By balancing the rigid constraints on water resources with urban population and economic development demands, the “water-based city development” scheme was determined. [Results] In 2025, the urban water use constraint of Ningxia was projected to be 1.001 billion m³, with an urban population of 4.748 4 million. Based on these figures, the reasonable controlled area for built-up areas was calculated to be 763.33 km², representing an increase of 85.87 km² compared to the current situation(2022). To meet the control requirements of “water-based city development” scheme, the average water use in built-up areas needed to reach 1.41 m³/m², an increase of 79.7% compared to the current level. The water use per capita for the entire region was expected to be 0.43 m³/d, an increase of 23.1% compared to the current level. It was indicated that the urban water use intensity significantly improved. [Conclusion] Urban development is closely related to water resource conditions. By analyzing the relationship between rational urban scale and water resource constraints through the “water-based city development” scheme, it effectively balances the relationship between urban population growth, economic development, and sustainable water resource utilization. This provides both theoretical support and practical guidance for the scientific development of cities in water-scarce regions, promoting the coordination among population, resources, and environment.

关键词

人-水-城关系 / 以水定城 / 水资源刚性约束 / 城市用水 / 用水集约度 / 影响因素

Key words

human-water-city relationship / water-based city development / rigid constraints on water resources / urban water use / water use intensity / influencing factors

基金资助

国家重点研发计划(2023YFF1304202)

亚洲开发银行技术援助项目(TA 10224-PRC)

国家自然科学基金项目(52079143)