基于DPSIR-AHP-FCE模型的城市排水防涝体系效能评估研究

Effectiveness assessment of urban drainage and flood control systems based on DPSIR-AHP-FCE model

摘要

【目的】城市洪涝灾害形势愈发严峻，迫切需要推动城市排水防涝体系建设升级。为检验城市防灾减灾能力，有必要对城市排水防涝体系效能做系统性评估。【方法】基于“驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应”(DPSIR)框架，提出一种耦合社会、自然与基础设施的综合评估方法。该方法通过外部环境约束与城市排水防涝体系内部状态联合分析，形成一套效能评估指标构建方法框架，并采用层次分析-模糊综合评价法量化指标权重与隶属度，结合耦合协调度模型衡量效能水平。以九江市中心城区为实证对象，对比分析了2017年与2021年排水防涝体系效能。【结果】结果显示：随着城市涉水规划首批工程的落成，九江市中心城区DPSIR 5个维度的耦合协调度从0.771提升至0.901,达到高度协调，排水防涝体系效能提升；排涝泵闸达标率、堤防达标率、城市除涝达标率等关键指标的得分分别提升了0.45、0.50、0.42,状态、影响维度的短板显著改善；然而，排水管网建设相对落后，不透水面率呈增加趋势，是未来治理重点。【结论】该框架有助于诊断城市排水防涝体系的薄弱环节，为城市雨洪应对措施的规划与建设提供一定参考。

Abstract

[Objective] Urban flooding disasters are becoming increasingly severe, which drives the upgrading of urban drainage and flood control systems. To assess urban disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, it is necessary to conduct a systematic assessment of the effectiveness of urban drainage and flood control systems. [Methods] An integrated assessment method coupling social, natural, and infrastructure dimensions was developed based on the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response(DPSIR) framework. By jointly analyzing external environmental constraints and internal conditions of urban drainage and flood control systems, a framework for constructing effectiveness assessment indicators was established. The Analytic Hierarchy Process-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation(AHP-FCE) method was employed to quantify indicator weights and membership degrees, and integrated with a coupling coordination degree model to assess effectiveness levels. Using the central urban area of Jiujiang City as a case study, the effectiveness of urban drainage and flood control systems in 2017 and 2021 was compared and analyzed. [Results] The result showed that with the completion of the first-phase urban water-related projects, the coupling coordination degree of the five DPSIR dimensions in the central urban area of Jiujiang City increased from 0.771 to 0.901, achieving high coordination and enhancing system effectiveness. Key indicators including compliance rates of drainage pumps and gates, levees, and urban stormwater drainage increased by 0.45, 0.50, and 0.42 points respectively, significantly improving deficiencies in the state and impact dimensions. However, the construction of the drainage pipe network was relatively underdeveloped, and the impervious surface ratio showed an increasing trend, which would be a key focus for future management. [Conclusion] This framework helps identify weaknesses in urban drainage and flood control systems and provides guidance for planning and implementing urban stormwater management strategies.

关键词

城市洪涝 / 城市排水防涝体系 / 效能评估 / 指标框架 / DPSIR框架 / 层次分析-模糊综合评价法 / 气候变化

Key words

urban flooding / urban drainage and flood control systems / effectiveness assessment / indicator framework / DPSIR framework / analytic hierarchy process fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method / climate change

基金资助

国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3006702)

水利部重大项目(SKS-2022014)

长江生态环保集团项目(HBZB2024032)