中国城镇化与工业用水的脱钩效应及驱动因素研究

Research on decoupling effect and driving factors of urbanization and industrial water consumption in China

摘要

【目的】城镇化进程中工业用水需求激增导致水资源短缺问题日益严峻，协调经济增长与水资源可持续利用成为关键挑战。【方法】以我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)为研究对象，从时空异质性视角系统揭示了工业用水与城镇化的动态脱钩效应及驱动机制。通过融合Sen+Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Tapio脱钩模型与LMDI分解方法，弥补了现有研究在省级层面长时序动态分析及政策响应量化评估方面的局限性。【结果】研究结果表明：(1)研究期内，我国绝大多数省份的工业用水量变化显著，工业用水量呈减少趋势的省份远多于增加的省份，主要集中在东南沿海地区、东北地区和西南地区；(2)“十一五”时期(2006—2010年)城镇化对工业用水的脱钩关系呈扩张性负脱钩状态，“十二五”(2011—2015年)和“十三五”时期(2016—2020年)呈现强脱钩状态，总体上脱钩情况趋于向好，协调关系进一步加强。【结论】技术效应是促进城镇化与工业用水实现脱钩的主要驱动因素，产出效应是抑制两者脱钩的主要驱动因素，而结构效应和人口效应对两者脱钩的影响相对较弱。研究结果可为我国工业水资源利用与经济增长的协调可持续发展提供科学借鉴。

Abstract

[Objective] The rapid increase in industrial water demand during the urbanization process has led to increasingly severe water scarcity, making the coordination between economic growth and sustainable water resource utilization a critical challenge. [Methods] Taking 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions) in China as the research objects, the dynamic decoupling effect and driving mechanisms between industrial water consumption and urbanization were systematically revealed from the perspective of spatiotemporal heterogeneity. By integrating Sen + Mann-Kendall trend test, the Tapio decoupling model, and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) decomposition method, the limitations of existing studies in long-term dynamic analysis and quantitative evaluation of policy response at the provincial level were addressed. [Results] The results showed that:(1) during the study period, significant variations in industrial water consumption were observed in most provinces of China. Provinces with a decreasing trend in industrial water consumption far outnumbered those showing an increasing trend, mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal areas, northeastern regions, and southwestern regions.(2) During the 11th Five-Year Plan period(2006—2010), urbanization and industrial water consumption showed an expansive negative decoupling relationship. During the 12th Five-Year Plan(2011—2015) and 13th Five-Year Plan(2016—2020) periods, a strong decoupling was observed, with an overall improvement in decoupling and further strengthened coordination. [Conclusion] The technological effect emerged as the primary driving factor promoting the decoupling between urbanization and industrial water consumption, while the output effect acted as the major factor inhibiting their decoupling. The structural and population effects exhibited relatively weaker impacts on the decoupling between the two. The findings can provide scientific reference for the coordinated and sustainable development of industrial water resource utilization and economic growth in China.

关键词

工业用水 / 城镇化 / 时空演化趋势 / 脱钩效应 / 驱动因素 / 水资源短缺 / 可持续发展 / 影响因素

Key words

industrial water consumption / urbanization / spatiotemporal evolution trend / decoupling effect / driving factors / water scarcity / sustainable development / influencing factors

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(42142002)