多水库联调与动态修正方法研究：以叶尔羌河流域为例

Research on multi-reservoir joint scheduling and dynamic correction method: A case study of Yarkant River Basin

摘要

【目的】针对叶尔羌河流域水资源调度中多目标协同难、水文不确定性高及传统静态方案适应性不足的问题，提出一种多水库联调与动态修正方法，旨在实现山区水库与平原水库的动态协同调度，提升水资源配置的灵活性与可靠性，为干旱区内陆河流域综合管理提供科学依据。【方法】构建“规划—预报—反馈”动态修正框架：(1)基于线性规划模型定义多目标优化问题，包括区域用水保障率、水库库容恢复度及生态下泄量等目标；(2)采用Prophet时间序列模型滚动预测月尺度河道来水量，结合实际来水与预报结果动态更新约束条件；(3)通过逐月滚动求解线性规划模型，实时调整水库调度方案。以叶尔羌河流域为例，整合山区水库(阿尔塔什水利枢纽)与33座平原水库的水文、气象及调度数据，开展1961—2020年历史仿真与典型年(枯水年、丰水年)情景分析，并评估径流预报误差对调度效果的影响。【结果】动态修正策略在历史仿真中表现稳健：最优方案与基准方案分别有59 a与50 a满足黑尼亚孜断面向塔里木河的下泄目标(≥3.3亿m³),各年区域用水保障率均达86%以上。枯水年(1963年)与丰水年(1977年)的用水保障率分别为88%与98%,且下泄目标均完全满足。径流预报误差达到25%时，用水保障率显著下降至78%,而误差低于25%时方案效果稳定，表明当前叶尔羌河干流预报误差(22%)可支撑动态调度的实际需求。【结论】结果表明，提出的动态修正框架通过耦合径流预报与滚动优化，有效缓解了水文不确定性与调度刚性间的矛盾，显著提升了多目标水资源调度的适应性。山区水库与平原水库的协同联调可平衡发电、灌溉与生态补水需求，而月尺度径流预报精度是调度方案可靠性的关键。该方法为干旱区复杂水库群系统的精细化调度提供了技术路径，未来需进一步融合水文机理模型以提高长期预报精度。

Abstract

[Objective] To address the challenges of multi-objective coordination, high hydrological uncertainty, and limited adaptability of conventional static schemes in water resource scheduling of the Yarkant River Basin, a dynamic correction method for multi-reservoir joint scheduling is proposed to achieve dynamic coordinated scheduling between mountain and plain reservoirs, improve the flexibility and reliability of water resource scheduling, and provide a scientific basis for integrated management of inland river basins in arid regions. [Methods] A “planning-forecast-feedback” dynamic correction framework was established.(1) Based on a linear programming model, the multi-objective optimization problem was defined, including objective such as regional water supply guarantee rate, reservoir storage recovery rate, and ecological release volume.(2) Monthly-scale river inflow was predicted through rolling forecasts using the Prophet time-series model, and the constraints were dynamically updated by integrating actual inflow and forecast result.(3) The linear programming model was solved on a monthly rolling basis to adjust the reservoir scheduling schemes in real time. Taking the Yarkant River Basin as a case study, hydrological, meteorological, and operational data from the mountain reservoir(Artashi hydropower station) and 33 plain reservoirs were integrated. Historical simulations(1961—2020) and scenario analyses in typical years(dry and wet years) were conducted, and the impact of runoff forecast errors on the scheduling effectiveness was evaluated. [Results] The dynamic correction strategy showed robust performance in historical simulations. The optimal and baseline schemes achieved the objective of ecological release(≥330 million m³) from the Heiniyazi section to the Tarim River in 59 years and 50 years, respectively, with regional water supply guarantee rates exceeding 86% in all years. In the dry year(1963) and wet year(1977), water supply guarantee rates reached 88% and 98% respectively, and the release objective were fully met. When runoff forecast errors reached 25%, water supply guarantee rate decreased significantly to 78%, while the scheme maintained stable effectiveness with errors below 25%, indicating that the current forecast error(22%) in the mainstream of the Yarkant River could support the practical requirements of dynamic scheduling. [Conclusion] The results show that proposed dynamic correction framework effectively mitigates the conflict between hydrological uncertainty and rigid scheduling by coupling runoff forecasting with rolling optimization, significantly enhancing the adaptability of multi-objective water resource scheduling. The joint scheduling of mountain and plain reservoirs can balance the demands for power generation, irrigation, and ecological water supplementation, while the accuracy of monthly-scale runoff forecast is critical to the reliability of dynamic schemes. The method provides a technical pathway for refined scheduling of complex reservoir systems in arid regions. Future work should further integrate hydrological process-based models to improve long-term forecast accuracy.

关键词

动态修正调度 / 多水库联调 / 叶尔羌河流域 / 径流预报 / 多目标优化 / 水资源 / 干旱区 / 内陆河流域

Key words

dynamic correction scheduling / multi-reservoir joint scheduling / Yarkant River Basin / runoff forecasting / multi-objective optimization / water resources / arid regions / inland river basins

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(51979140)

塔里木河流域管理局2024年新立项科研项目(TGJKSJJG-2024ZXFW0036)

青海黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司项目“黄河羊曲水电站工程对局地气候影响及生物多样性演变趋势研究”(2004-014-HHS-SD-X)