基于流量预测法和预泄回充理念的巴塘水电站日常调度优化研究

王明; 梁春玲; 黄李冰; 朱振慧; 张防修

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.04.015

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2026, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (4) : 202 -212. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.04.015

水力学

基于流量预测法和预泄回充理念的巴塘水电站日常调度优化研究

王明 ¹^,²^,³ ,
梁春玲 ⁴ ,
黄李冰 ¹^,²^,³ ,
朱振慧 ¹^,²^,³ ,
张防修 ¹^,²^,³

作者信息 +

Research on daily operation optimization of Batang Hydropower Station based on flow prediction method and pre-discharge and refill concept

Ming WANG ¹^,²^,³ ,
Chunling LIANG ⁴ ,
Libing HUANG ¹^,²^,³ ,
Zhenhui ZHU ¹^,²^,³ ,
Fangxiu ZHANG ¹^,²^,³

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】针对无洪水预报条件的日调节水库调度需求，突破传统方法对预报数据的依赖性，提出基于流量预测的“预泄-回充”优化方法。【方法】以印尼巴塘水电站为研究对象，构建前日流量驱动的两阶段调度模式：基于流量时序关联性，建立当日流量估算方法；以小时为决策单元，基于水量平衡方程递推生成预泄与回充的调度过程，并基于实测径流数据量化评估优化效果。【结果】结果显示：当流量预测系数为0.8时，有效调控天数占比达42.6%,综合优化调度潜力最大；在此基础上，当设置430.0 m作为预泄水位时，发电保证率达99.4%,高水位运行时间占比降至8.95%,较预泄至427.5 m方案分别提升0.1%和降低3.45%。【结论】结果表明：该方法可在保证发电效率的基础上，显著减少高水位运行时间，无预报条件下可有效平衡发电与高水位运行导致的泥沙库容淤损风险，为无预报场景下水库多目标调度提供了新的思路和方法。

Abstract

[Objective] To address the operational demands of daily-regulated reservoirs without flood forecast conditions, and to overcome the dependence of traditional method on forecast data, an optimized “pre-discharge and refill” method based on flow prediction is proposed. [Methods] Taking the Batang Hydropower Station in Indonesia as the study object, a two-stage operation mode driven by the previous day's inflow was constructed. Based on the temporal correlation of inflow series, a method for estimating the current day's inflow was established. Taking an hour as the decision unit, the scheduling process of pre-discharge and refill was recursively generated based on the water balance equation, and the optimization effect was quantitatively evaluated based on observed runoff data. [Results] The results showed that when the flow prediction coefficient was 0.8, the proportion of effectively regulated days reached 42.6%, demonstrating the greatest potential for comprehensive scheduling optimization. On this basis, when 430.0 m was set as the pre-discharge water level, the power generation guarantee rate reached 99.4%, and the proportion of high-water-level operation time decreased to 8.95%. Compared with the scheme of pre-discharging to 427.5 m, these values increased by 0.1% and decreased by 3.45%, respectively. [Conclusion] On the basis of ensuring power generation efficiency, the proposed method can significantly reduce the duration of high-water-level operation. Under no-forecast conditions, it can effectively balance power generation with the risk of sedimentation-induced loss of storage capacity caused by high-water-level operation. It provides a novel approach for the multi-objective operation of reservoirs under no-forecast scenarios.

关键词

水利工程 / 流量预测 / 优化调度 / 日调节水库 / 预泄水位 / 预蓄时间 / 径流 / 印度尼西亚

Key words

hydraulic engineering / flow prediction / optimized operation / daily-regulated reservoir / pre-discharge water level / pre-storage time / runoff / Indonesia