基于洪水-路网信息耦合的溃坝事故避洪路径规划研究

Research on flood evacuation route planning for dam failure accidents based on coupling of flood-road network information

摘要

【目的】水库溃坝所引发的洪水具有极强的冲击力，且淹没范围广、流速快、破坏性大，对下游区域的公众生命财产安全和社会环境稳定构成了极大威胁，提高溃坝事故下游群众疏散效率，开展溃坝事故避洪路径规划研究具有重要意义。【方法】以时间最短、疏散过程人员风险最低为目标，以溃坝洪水的动态演进过程为约束条件，采用无人机倾斜摄影测量技术获取水库下游路网结构，耦合洪水演进过程数据，构建洪水-路网信息耦合模型，结合Dijkstra算法提出溃坝事故避洪路径规划方法，并以福建省山美水库为例展开验证。【结果】结果显示：根据山美水库下游路网失效的动态过程，为8个受灾点规划了4种疏散方案，共13条避洪路径，所有受灾点人员在疏散过程中都避开了洪水影响。【结论】结果表明：基于洪水-路网信息耦合的溃坝事故避洪路径规划方法，保证了撤离路线的安全性，满足应急管理对溃坝事故避洪疏散路径的安全性和时效性要求。

Abstract

[Objective] The floods caused by dam failures exhibit strong impact forces, extensive inundation areas, fast flow velocities, and great destructive power. They pose a significant threat to public life, property safety, and social and environmental stability in downstream areas. To improve evacuation efficiency in dam failure accidents, it is crucial to conduct research on flood evacuation route planning. [Methods] Minimum evacuation time and lowest public safety risks during evacuation were set as the goals, and the dynamic flooding propagation caused by dam failures was used as a constraint. By using unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) tilt photogrammetry technology to map the road network in the downstream of the reservoir and integrating it with flooding propagation data, a coupling model of flood-road network information was developed. Then, using this model and Dijkstra's algorithm, a flood evacuation route planning method was proposed, which was further validated through a case study of the Shanmei Reservoir in Fujian, China. [Results] The result shows that based on the dynamic process of road network failure in the downstream of Shanmei Reservoir, four evacuation plans were designed for 8 disaster-affected sites, with 13 evacuation routes in total. All evacuees from disaster-affected sites successfully avoided floods during the evacuation. [Conclusion] The findings demonstrate that the flood evacuation route planning method for dam failure accidents based on coupling flood and road network information effectively ensures evacuation route safety and meets both safety and timeliness requirements of emergency management for flood evacuation routes in the event of dam failure accidents.

关键词

溃坝事故 / 洪水 / 洪水-路网信息 / 路径规划 / 应急疏散 / 三维仿真模拟 / Dijkstra算法 / 无人机倾斜摄影测量

Key words

dam failure accident / flood / flood-road network information / route planning / emergency evacuation / 3D simulation / Dijkstra Algorithm / UAV obliqee photogrammetry

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(42271026)