1985—2024年湖北省极端湿热事件时空演变及其对前期极端降水的响应

涂玉凤; 方建; 程晓亮; 张益菡; 王晓丽; 林雅玲

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.05.004

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2026, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (5) : 40 -51. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.05.004

复杂灾害链与水旱巨灾风险评估专栏

1985—2024年湖北省极端湿热事件时空演变及其对前期极端降水的响应

涂玉凤 ¹^,² ,
方建 ¹^,² ,
程晓亮 ³^,⁴ ,
张益菡 ¹^,² ,
王晓丽 ¹^,² ,
林雅玲 ¹^,²

作者信息 +

Spatiotemporal evolution of extreme hot and humid events in Hubei Province from 1985 to 2024 and their response to preceding extreme precipitation

Yufeng TU ¹^,² ,
Jian FANG ¹^,² ,
Xiaoliang CHENG ³^,⁴ ,
Yihan ZHANG ¹^,² ,
Xiaoli WANG ¹^,² ,
Yaling LIN ¹^,²

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】全球气候变化背景下，极端湿热事件频发且影响广泛，对人体健康、社会经济和生态系统造成严重威胁，研究极端湿热事件时空演变及其对前期极端降水的响应规律，为完善区域气候变化适应策略和极端天气事件预警系统提供了科学依据。【方法】基于1985—2024年湖北省17个城市的ERA5再分析数据，采用简化湿球黑球温度(sWBGT)指数识别极端湿热事件，运用趋势检验、多元回归等方法，系统分析了研究区极端湿热事件的时空演变特征及其对极端降水的响应机制。【结果】(1)湖北省极端湿热事件呈现显著增加趋势，历时也表现出增加趋势，尤其是HS-EP型(有前期极端降水的湿热事件);(2)极端湿热事件具有不同的空间分布组合，西部地区高频次(频次>80次)、长历时(>5.6 d)、低强度(<35),中部地区低频次(频次<70次)、短历时(<4.8 d)、高强度(>36);(3)前期极端降水对极端湿热事件具有调节作用，HS-EP事件与HS-NEP事件(无前期极端降水的湿热事件)三个对数特征(频次、历时、强度)的比分别为-1.200、0.148、-0.005;(4)前期极端降水影响表现出明显的时滞性和区域差异性，呈现“短期抑制(1~2 d)-长期促进(7~10 d)”的演变模式。【结论】研究揭示了湖北省极端湿热事件时空分布格局及其对前期降水的响应规律，为理解全球变暖背景下区域极端湿热事件与极端降水交互响应机制提供了新思路。

Abstract

[Objective] In the context of global climate change, extreme hot and humid events have become more frequent and widespread, posing significant threats to human health, socioeconomic development, and ecosystems. Investigating the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme hot and humid events and their response patterns to preceding extreme precipitation provides a scientific basis for improving regional climate adaptation strategies and early warning systems for extreme weather events. [Methods] Based on ERA5 reanalysis data from 17 cities in Hubei Province from 1985 to 2024, extreme hot and humid events were identified using the simplified Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature(sWBGT) index. Trend tests, multiple regression, and other method were applied to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of extreme hot and humid events in the study area and their response mechanisms to extreme precipitation. [Results] (1) Extreme hot and humid events in Hubei Province exhibited a significant increasing trend, and their duration showed an upward trend, particularly for HS-EP events(hot and humid events with preceding extreme precipitation).(2) Extreme hot and humid events showed different spatial distribution patterns. The western region experienced high frequency(>80 times), long duration(>5.6 days), and low intensity(<35), while the central region exhibited low frequency(<70 times), short duration(<4.8 days), and high intensity(>36).(3) Preceding extreme precipitation played a regulatory role in extreme hot and humid events. The logarithmic ratios of three characteristics(frequency, duration, and intensity) between HS-EP events and HS-NEP events(hot and humid events without preceding extreme precipitation) were-1.200, 0.148, and-0.005, respectively.(4) The impact of preceding extreme precipitation showed notable lagged effects and regional differences, exhibiting an evolution pattern of “short-term suppression(1~2 days)-long-term enhancement(7~10 days)”[Conclusion] The findings reveal the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of extreme hot and humid events in Hubei Province and their response patterns to preceding precipitation, providing new insights into the interactive response mechanisms between regional extreme hot and humid events and extreme precipitation under global warming.

关键词

极端湿热事件 / 极端降水 / 时空分布 / 滞后效应 / 区域差异 / 时空演变 / 响应机制 / 影响因素

Key words

extreme hot and humid events / extreme precipitation / spatiotemporal distribution / lagged effect / regional differences / spatiotemporal evolution / response mechanism / influencing factors