基于SWAT模型的CMIP6情景下松花江下游流域径流与水文干旱研究（英文）

Research on streamflow and hydrological drought in lower Songhua River Basin under CMIP6 scenarios based on SWAT model

摘要

【目的】旨在探究未来气候情景下松花江下游流域径流动态变化和水文干旱特征，为区域水资源管理提供科学依据，并为制定综合性干旱和洪涝灾害防控策略提供指导。【方法】基于1970—2014年水文气象数据，构建SWAT模型，并采用14个CMIP6气候模式驱动模型运行。通过泰勒图分析筛选5个最优气候模式，结合SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5三种情景，模拟2015—2100年径流变化。【结果】SWAT模型在同江水文站表现优异，校准期和验证期的R²和NSE值均超过0.7,PBIAS绝对值低于10.7%,验证了模型可靠性。未来气候预测显示，流域降水、气温和蒸散量均呈增加趋势。气温和蒸散量增幅依次为SSP5-8.5> SSP2-4.5> SSP1-2.6,降水增幅依次为SSP5-4.5> SSP1-2.6> SSP2-8.5。季节性变化方面，SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下秋冬季降水显著增加，而SSP2-4.5情景下夏冬季降水明显增加。径流变化呈现强烈的情景依赖性：SSP1-2.6显著增加，而SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5变化不显著。标准化径流指数(SSI)分析显示，SSP1-2.6情景下SSI显著上升，其他情景呈下降趋势。干旱特征分析表明，SSP1-2.6情景下除平均干旱历时外所有干旱指标均下降，而SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下除干旱频率外所有指标均上升。季节尺度上，SSP1-2.6增加春夏占比并提高冬季干旱频率，SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5增加秋冬占比并相应改变干旱频率。【结论】未来气候变化将显著影响松花江下游流域水文特征。SSP1-2.6情景促进径流增加和干旱缓解，而SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景可能加剧干旱风险。研究结果为区域水资源管理和灾害防控提供决策支持，建议针对不同气候情景制定差异化适应策略。

Abstract

[Objective] This study aims to investigate streamflow variations and hydrological drought characteristics in the lower Songhua River Basin under future climate scenarios, providing a scientific basis for regional water resource management and guidance for formulating comprehensive drought and flood disaster prevention and control strategies. [Methods] Based on hydrometeorological data from 1970—2014, a SWAT model was constructed and driven by 14 CMIP6 climate models. Five optimal climate models were selected through Taylor diagram analysis and combined with SSP1-2. 6, SSP2-4. 5, and SSP5-8. 5 scenarios to simulate streamflow variations from 2015 to 2100. [Results] The SWAT model demonstrated excellent performance at Tongjiang hydrological station, with R² and NSE values exceeding 0. 7 during both calibration and validation periods. The absolute values of PBIAS were below 10. 7%, confirming model reliability. Future climate predictions indicated increasing trends in precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration across the river basin. The magnitude of temperature and evapotranspiration increases followed the order of SSP5-8. 5 > SSP2-4. 5 > SSP1-2. 6, while precipitation increases ranked as SSP5-4. 5 > SSP1-2. 6 > SSP2-8. 5. Seasonally, SSP1-2. 6 and SSP5-8. 5 scenarios showed significant precipitation increases in autumn and winter, while SSP2-4. 5 scenario exhibited notable increases in summer and winter. Streamflow variations strongly depended on scenarios: SSP1-2. 6 showed significant increases, while variations under SSP2-4. 5 and SSP5-8. 5 were not significant. Standardized Streamflow Index(SSI) analysis showed significant increases under SSP1-2. 6, but declining trends under other scenarios. Drought characteristic analysis indicated that under SSP1-2. 6, all drought indices except average drought duration decreased, while under SSP2-4. 5 and SSP5-8. 5, all indices except drought frequency increased. Seasonally, SSP1-2. 6 increased spring-summer proportions with elevated winter drought frequency, while SSP2-4. 5 and SSP5-8. 5 increased autumn-winter proportions with corresponding frequency changes. [Conclusion] Future climate change will significantly impact hydrological characteristics in the lower Songhua River Basin. The SSP1-2. 6 scenario promotes streamflow increase and drought mitigation, while the SSP2-4. 5 and SSP5-8. 5 scenarios may exacerbate drought risks. The findings provide decision-making support for regional water resource management and disaster prevention, recommending differentiated adaptation strategies tailored to specific climate scenarios.

关键词

松花江下游流域 / CMIP6 / 水文干旱 / 游程理论 / SWAT模型 / 径流 / 共享社会经济路径 / 影响因素

Key words

lower Songhua River Basin / CMIP6 / hydrological drought / run theory / SWAT model / streamflow / shared socioeconomic pathways / influencing factors

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(52109055)

黑龙江省博士后面上资助项目(LBH-Z24110)