复杂地形流域降水-土壤湿度-径流耦合关系研究：以闽江建溪流域为例

靳梦哲; 郝晓博; 刘荣华; 官晓军; 汪澜; 陈莹; 游介文; 高路

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.05.008

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2026, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (5) : 94 -109. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.05.008

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复杂地形流域降水-土壤湿度-径流耦合关系研究：以闽江建溪流域为例

靳梦哲 ¹^,²^,³ ,
郝晓博 ⁴ ,
刘荣华 ⁵ ,
官晓军 ⁶ ,
汪澜 ⁶ ,
陈莹 ¹^,²^,³ ,
游介文 ¹^,²^,³ ,
高路 ¹^,²^,³

作者信息 +

Study on coupling relationship between precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff in complex terrain river basins: A case study of Jianxi River Basin in Min River

Mengzhe JIN ¹^,²^,³ ,
Xiaobo HAO ⁴ ,
Ronghua LIU ⁵ ,
Xiaojun GUAN ⁶ ,
Lan WANG ⁶ ,
Ying CHEN ¹^,²^,³ ,
Jiewen YOU ¹^,²^,³ ,
Lu GAO ¹^,²^,³

Author information +

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摘要

【目的】土壤湿度是影响降水-径流形成过程的关键变量。然而，复杂地形区域土壤湿度观测的匮乏，导致其与降水、径流的互馈机理难以明晰，这已成为提升流域水文过程认知与洪水预报精度的主要瓶颈。因此，揭示土壤湿度与降水、径流的协同演变规律及其对径流的调控机制，对变化环境下水资源管理具有重要意义。【方法】基于2010—2021年闽江上游建溪流域汛期(4—9月)逐日观测数据，综合运用趋势检验、有序聚类、滞后回归、分层分析及模型对比等方法，探究建溪流域降水-土壤湿度-径流的耦合机制。【结果】结果表明：(1)降水与径流在2010年7月发生协同突变后进入长期稳定阶段，而土壤湿度保持稳定，表现出“水文缓冲器”特征；(2)三要素关系存在显著的尺度效应：月尺度降水主导径流，日尺度土壤湿度调控能力更强，呈现主导因素随尺度变化的特征；(3)土壤湿度对降水-径流的调控具有状态依赖性，湿润状态产流效率是干旱状态的5~6倍，并呈现差异化的滞后响应模式；(4)模型对比验证了上述机制，融合降水与径流记忆的混合模型(AR+XGBoost)表现最优(NSE=0.876),其前期径流记忆特征贡献率达13.3%。【结论】建溪流域的降水-径流转化是一个以降水为驱动、土壤湿度为状态变量的非线性过程，其转化效率取决于前期土壤湿度状态及其滞后调控模式。研究结果可为复杂地形流域的水资源管理与洪水预报提供科学参考。

Abstract

[Objective] Soil moisture is a key variable affecting the precipitation-runoff process. However, the lack of soil moisture observations in complex terrain regions makes it difficult to clarify its mutual feedback mechanisms with precipitation and runoff, which has become a major bottleneck for improving the understanding of river basin hydrological processes and flood forecasting accuracy. Therefore, revealing the co-evolution patterns of soil moisture, precipitation, and runoff, as well as their regulatory mechanisms on runoff, is of great significance for water resources management under changing environments. [Methods] Based on daily observational data from the flood season(April to September) from 2010 to 2021 in the Jianxi River Basin in the upper reaches of the Min River, multiple method including trend tests, ordered clustering, lagged regression, hierarchical analysis, and model comparison were employed to explore the coupling mechanisms of precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff. [Results] The result showed that:(1) after a synchronous abrupt change in precipitation and runoff in July 2010, both entered a long-term stable stage, while soil moisture remained stable, exhibiting the characteristics of a “hydrological buffer”.(2) A significant scale effect was observed in the relationships among the three elements. At the monthly scale, precipitation dominated runoff, whereas at the daily scale, soil moisture had stronger regulatory capacity, indicating that the dominant factor varied with scale.(3) The regulation of soil moisture on precipitation and runoff was state-dependent, with runoff efficiency under wet conditions being 5 to 6 times higher than under dry conditions, and it exhibited a differentiated lag response pattern.(4) Model comparison verified the above mechanisms. The hybrid model integrating precipitation and runoff memory(AR+XGBoost) showed optimal performance(NSE = 0.876), with the contribution rate of its antecedent runoff memory characteristics reaching 13.3%. [Conclusion] The precipitation-runoff transformation in the Jianxi River Basin is a nonlinear process driven by precipitation, with soil moisture serving as a state variable. Its transformation efficiency depends on the antecedent soil moisture state and its lagged regulatory mode. The findings provide a scientific basis for water resources management and flood forecasting in complex terrain river basins.

关键词

土壤湿度 / 降水-径流关系 / 多尺度分析 / 调控机制 / 建溪流域 / 滞后响应 / 复杂地形流域 / 影响因素

Key words

soil moisture / precipitation-runoff relationship / multi-scale analysis / regulatory mechanism / Jianxi River Basin / lagged response / complex terrain river basin / influencing factors