中国1987—2024年自然灾害链研究进展

Research progress on natural disaster chains in China from 1987 to 2024

摘要

【目的】灾害链链式风险传导效应研究是短期应急与恢复和中长期防御策略制定的重要前提，系统梳理中国已有研究的发展脉络，可明确灾害链领域未来的研究方向和优化一线减灾能力。【方法】对在国内任职的中国学者1987—2024年间发表的300余篇中文核心期刊论文和2007年至今发表的143篇SCI论文从时间轴进行了系统的综述。【结果】结果显示：(1)过去38a间，我国在灾害链领域的研究经历了灾害链及相关延伸概念的讨论、链式过程推演研究、影响评估方法与量化模型开发3个发展阶段；(2)已有研究多集中于链式结构的定性推理，链式风险扩散转移影响的定量化研究正在成为当前的热点；(3)所涉灾种多集中于地震地质灾害，也有部分暴雨、洪涝、干旱等灾种的定性推理与定量评估的成果，但总体而言相对较少；(4)依托链式风险扩散网络的断链减灾效益评估尚需加强，未来可考虑将已有减灾资源的协同效益纳入链式风险减灾评估中。【结论】结果表明：为更好地服务防灾减灾一线，可围绕历史灾害事件、灾害系统科学、立体监测网络、断链减灾策略应用4个方面完善灾害链领域的理论与量化实证研究。上述发现可为研究者们精准把握灾害链领域的研究方向提供参考。

Abstract

[Objective] Research on the chain risk transmission effects of disaster chains is an important prerequisite for formulating short-term emergency response and recovery strategies, as well as medium-to long-term prevention strategies. Systematically reviewing the development trajectory of existing research in China can clarify the future research directions in the field of disaster chains and optimize frontline disaster mitigation capabilities. [Methods] A systematic timeline-based review is conducted on over 300 papers published in Chinese core journals between 1987 and 2024 and 143 SCI-indexed papers published since 2007, all authored by scholars affiliated with Chinese institutions. [Results] The result show that:(1) over the past 38 years, research on disaster chains in China has gone through three development stages: discussion of disaster chains and related extended concepts, research on chain process deduction, and development of impact assessment method and quantitative models.(2) Existing studies primarily focus on qualitative reasoning of chain structures, while quantitative research on chain risk diffusion and transfer impact is becoming a current hotspot.(3) The studied disaster types are mostly concentrated on earthquake and geological disasters, with some result of qualitative reasoning and quantitative assessment for disasters such as rainstorms, floods, and droughts, though such studies remain relatively limited overall. The assessment of the benefits of chain-breaking disaster mitigation based on chain risk diffusion networks needs to be strengthened. Future research can consider incorporating the synergistic effects of existing disaster mitigation resources into chain risk mitigation assessment. [Conclusion] The results indicate that to better support frontline disaster prevention and mitigation, theoretical and quantitative empirical research in the field of disaster chains can be improved from four aspects: historical disaster events, disaster system science, three-dimensional monitoring networks, and the application of chain-breaking disaster mitigation strategies. These findings can provide references for researchers to accurately identify research directions in the field of disaster chains.

关键词

灾害链 / 链式结构推演 / 链式风险评估 / 断链减灾 / 风险传导 / 量化模型 / 防灾减灾 / 影响因素

Key words

disaster chain / chain structure deduction / chain risk assessment / chain-breaking disaster mitigation / risk transmission / quantitative model / disaster prevention and mitigation / influencing factors

基金资助

内蒙古自治区自然科学基金面上项目(2024MS04011)

内蒙古自治区高等学校青年科技英才支持计划资助项目(NJYT23082)

国家自然科学基金项目(72004017)