昆仑山北坡气候变化与水文响应特征研究

Study on climate change and hydrological response characteristics on northern slope of Kunlun Mountains

摘要

【目的】受高海拔环境复杂性及气候变化与人类活动叠加影响，昆仑山北坡径流变化机制已成为当前干旱区水文学研究的核心难点之一。通过解析1956—2023年间昆仑山北坡(涵盖和田河、克里雅河、车尔臣河流域)气候与水文过程的协同演变规律及其潜在影响因素，旨在为寒旱区水资源的可持续管理与科学配置提供决策依据。【方法】基于高分辨率气象与水文数据库，结合线性回归分析、滑动平均法以及距平分析等方法，揭示区域气温、降水与径流量的长期变化趋势、空间聚集性及其驱动路径。【结果】结果表明：(1)区域加速增温显著，升温速率达0.313~0.375℃/10 a,显著高于全球和全国均值；主要受高海拔增温放大效应与冰雪消融导致的地表反照率下降共同驱动。(2)降水量总体呈线性增加趋势(1.17~11.8 mm/10 a),但受西风水汽输送衰减影响，东部地区自2020年起转为减少趋势。(3)1990年后径流量显著增加(2010年后增幅超30%)。基于Z-score标准化解耦分析后，确证气温对径流的贡献远超降水。径流主要依赖冰川加速消融的短期补给，与气温变化高度同步，而降水-径流响应存在滞后性，可能与地下水调蓄有关。(4)东西部水文响应分异显著，西部流域降水-径流转化效率保持稳定，而东部流域自2020年起出现显著解耦。【结论】昆仑山北坡呈现极端的“温度控制型”响应路径，气候变化显著重塑了区域水文格局。应建立针对冰川消融高峰的监测预警系统，修订水利工程标准并优化水资源配置策略，以应对未来径流衰减风险，保障区域水安全与生态安全。

Abstract

[Objective] Due to the complexity of high-altitude environments and the combined effects of climate change and human activities, the mechanisms of runoff variations on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains have become one of the core challenges in current hydrological research in arid regions. The coordinated evolution patterns of climatic and hydrological processes on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains(covering Hotan River, Keriya River, and Cherchen River basins) from 1956 to 2023, as well as their underlying influencing factors, are investigated, aiming to provide decision-making support for the sustainable management and scientific allocation of water resources in cold and arid regions. [Methods] Based on high-resolution meteorological and hydrological databases, and combining methods including linear regression analysis, moving average analysis, and anomaly analysis, the long-term trends, spatial clustering, and driving mechanisms of regional temperature, precipitation, and runoff were revealed. [Results] The results indicated that(1) the region showed significant accelerated warming, with a warming rate of 0.313~0.375 ℃/10 years, significantly higher than the global and national average values. It was primarily driven by the elevation-dependent warming effect and the decrease in surface albedo caused by snow and ice melting.(2) Precipitation generally exhibited a linear increasing trend(1.17~11.8 mm/10 years), but due to the weakening of westerly moisture transport, precipitation in the eastern region shifted to a decreasing trend after 2020.(3) Runoff increased significantly after the 1990 s(with an increase of over 30% after 2010). Decoupling analysis based on Z-score standardization confirmed that temperature contributed far more to runoff than precipitation. Runoff primarily depended on short-term replenishment from accelerated glacial melting, showing a high degree of synchrony with temperature changes, whereas the precipitation-runoff response exhibited a lag, which might be related to groundwater storage and regulation.(4) Hydrological responses differed significantly between the eastern and western regions. The precipitation-to-runoff conversion efficiency remained stable in western river basins, whereas that in eastern river basins experienced distinct decoupling after 2020. [Conclusion] The northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains shows an extreme “temperature-controlled” response pathway, and climate change has significantly reshaped the regional hydrological patterns. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a monitoring and early warning system targeting peak glacial melting, revise water conservancy engineering standards, and optimize water resource allocation strategies, so as to cope with future runoff decline risks and ensure regional water and ecological security.

关键词

寒旱区 / 水文响应 / 和田河 / 气候变化 / 昆仑山 / 冰川消融 / 径流演变 / 影响因素

Key words

cold and arid regions / hydrological response / Hotan River / climate change / Kunlun Mountains / glacier melting / runoff evolution / influencing factors

基金资助

新疆重大需求人才支持计划项目(XJRC-2025ZZB-ZDXQ-009)

科技部重大基础专项子课题(2019QZKK0203-08)