不同气候情景下南水北调中线工程水源区水文干旱趋势研究

李多芬; 刘招; 白钰; 管子隆; 张晋霞; 张嘉琪; 何昭良

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.07.003

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2026, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (7) : 33 -45. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.07.003

气候变化的背景下干旱的多尺度响应机制与韧性适应路径专栏

不同气候情景下南水北调中线工程水源区水文干旱趋势研究

李多芬 ¹^,²^,³ ,
刘招 ¹^,²^,³ ,
白钰 ⁴ ,
管子隆 ⁴ ,
张晋霞 ¹^,²^,³ ,
张嘉琪 ¹^,²^,³ ,
何昭良 ¹^,²^,³

作者信息 +

Research on hydrological drought trends in water source area of South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project under different climate scenarios

Duofen LI ¹^,²^,³ ,
Zhao LIU ¹^,²^,³ ,
Yu BAI ⁴ ,
Zilong GUAN ⁴ ,
Jinxia ZHANG ¹^,²^,³ ,
Jiaqi ZHANG ¹^,²^,³ ,
Zhaoliang HE ¹^,²^,³

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】量化评估气候变化下南水北调中线工程水源区水文干旱未来演变趋势，为中线工程水资源安全管理和调度优化提供依据。【方法】基于CMIP6中CMCC-ESM2模式的SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景的降尺度数据，驱动SWAT模型模拟水源区未来(2026—2100年)径流过程，采用M-K趋势检验和年尺度SRI指数识别径流与水文干旱演变趋势。【结果】相较于基准期(1970—2020年),不同气候情景下水源区未来多年年均径流均呈增长趋势，且增幅随辐射强迫增强而扩大，上游汉中站增幅及趋势显著性最强，下游白河站径流增量最为突出。未来水源区整体水文干旱空间分异显著：SSP1-2.6情景下中下游干旱频率分别下降至0.33~0.45,烈度较基准期降低；在SSP2-4.5与SSP5-8.5情景下，上游干旱频率回升至0.40~0.45,安康站干旱历时与烈度最高增幅分别达到22.1%和23.4%。【结论】水源区对气候变化具有显著空间响应差异，中低排放情景下，汉中站与白河站呈“高频-短历时-低烈度”特征，高排放情景下中下游干旱趋于持久并显著增强，对未来中线工程水资源配置与防旱减灾提出更高要求。

Abstract

[Objective] Future evolution of hydrological drought in the water source area of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project under climate change is quantified, providing a basis for the security management and scheduling optimization of water resources for the project.[Methods] Downscaled data under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from the CMCC-ESM2 model in CMIP6 were used to drive the SWAT model to simulate the runoff processes in the water source area for the future period(2026—2100). The Mann-Kendall trend test and the annual-scale standardized runoff index(SRI) were applied to identify evolution trends of runoff and hydrological drought.[Results] Compared with the baseline period(1970—2020), the future multi-year average runoff in the water source area showed an increasing trend under different climate scenarios, and the magnitude of increase expanded as radiative forcing intensified. The upper-reach Hanzhong station exhibited the most pronounced increase and trend significance, while the runoff increment was most notable at the downstream Baihe station. Significant spatial heterogeneity was observed in the future hydrological drought across the water source area. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the drought frequency in the middle and lower reaches decreased to 0.33~0.45, and the drought severity was reduced compared with the baseline period. Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the drought frequency in the upper reach increased to 0.40~0.45, and the maximum increases in drought duration and severity at the Ankang station reached 22.1% and 23.4%, respectively.[Conclusion] The water source area exhibits pronounced spatial differences in its response to climate change. Under low-to-medium emission scenarios, Hanzhong and Baihe stations are characterized by a “high-frequency, short-duration, and low-severity” pattern. Under high-emission scenarios, droughts in the middle and lower reaches tend to become more persistent and intense, imposing greater demands on water resource allocation and drought mitigation in the future for the Middle Route Project.

关键词

南水北调中线工程 / SWAT模型 / Delta降尺度 / CMIP6气候模式 / 水文干旱 / 气候变化 / 径流 / 水资源安全

Key words

South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project / SWAT model / Delta downscaling / CMIP6 / hydrological drought / climate change / runoff / water resource security