基于碳中和背景的水电二次开发利用研究

Secondary development and utilization of hydropower under carbon neutrality goal

摘要

【目的】在“双碳”目标与生态约束刚性增强的背景下，挖掘存量水电站潜力并提升可再生能源消纳能力，是构建新型电力系统的关键路径。为了提出一套适用于水电开发成熟流域的二次开发与多能互补协同规划方法，【方法】以汉江丹江口-王甫洲梯级水库为研究对象，首先构建了以梯级发电量最大化和发电效益最大化为双目标，嵌入下游生态流量约束的短期优化调度模型。通过全生命周期经济评价确定水电扩容可行域后，进一步构建了以可再生能源消纳量最大化和系统剩余负荷方差最小化为目标的区域水光互补协同调度模型。【结果】丹江口水电站具备扩容至150万kW的技术潜力，全生命周期经济比选确定120万kW为最优扩容方案。结合王甫洲水库在非汛期实施10~20 cm的超蓄运行策略，可有效补偿因固定生态下泄流量导致的调峰能力损失。与75万kW光伏装机容量互补时，系统年发电总量可达40亿kWh,较基准方案提升10.7%,且系统剩余负荷方差更小，电量缺损率由2.48%降低至2.43%。【结论】研究提出的“扩容潜力评估-生态调峰协同-多能互补优化”系统解决方案，可为流域级水电二次开发与水光互补系统容量配置提供理论依据和实践参考。丹江口扩容至120万kW并搭配75万kW光伏为最优配比方案，该组合在提升发电效益与可再生能源消纳水平方面表现出显著优势。

Abstract

[Objective] Under the “dual carbon” goals and increasingly stringent ecological constraints, tapping the potential of existing hydropower stations and enhancing renewable energy integration capacity are crucial for building a new power system. A coordinated planning method for secondary hydropower development and multi-energy complementarity suitable for river basins with mature hydropower development is proposed.[Methods] Taking the Danjiangkou-Wangfuzhou cascade reservoirs in the Han River as the study object, a short-term optimal dispatch model was first constructed with dual objective of maximizing cascade power generation and generation benefits, incorporating downstream ecological flow constraints. After the feasible domain for hydropower capacity expansion was determined through life-cycle economic evaluation, a regional hydro-photovoltaic(PV) complementary coordinated operation model was further established with the objective of maximizing renewable energy integration and minimizing the variance of the system's residual load.[Results] The Danjiangkou Hydropower Station was found to possess the technical potential for capacity expansion to 1500 MW. Life-cycle economic comparison identified the 1200 MW expansion scheme as the optimal solution. Implementation of a 10~20 cm over-storage operation strategy for the Wangfuzhou Reservoir during the non-flood season effectively compensated for the peak shaving capacity loss caused by fixed ecological flow release. When complemented by an installed photovoltaic capacity of 750 MW, the system's total annual power generation reached 4 billion kWh, representing a 10.7% increase compared to the baseline scheme. Furthermore, the variance of the system's residual load was smaller, and the power deficit rate decreased from 2.48% to 2.43%.[Conclusion] The proposed system solution of “expansion potential assessment-ecological and peak-shaving coordination-multi-energy complementarity optimization” can provide a theoretical basis and practical reference for basin-level secondary hydropower development and capacity configuration of hydro-PV complementary systems. The configuration of Danjiangkou expansion to 1200 MW coupled with 750 MW PV is the optimal scheme, demonstrating significant advantages in improving power generation benefits and renewable energy integration.

关键词

水电二次开发 / 水光互补 / 多能互补 / 梯级发电差异化目标 / 生态流量调度 / 梯级水库调度 / 经济分析 / 综合评价

Key words

hydropower secondary development / hydro-photovoltaic complementation / multi energy complementary / differentiated targets for cascade hydropower stations / ecological flow operation / cascade reservoir operation / economic analysis / comprehensive evaluation

基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3005504)