基于数据驱动和系统动力学的水资源耦合系统建模方式对比研究

何中政; 郭俊; 贾本军; 路佳豪; 郭海盟; 纪宸; 陈佳伟

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.07.012

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2026, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (7) : 162 -172. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.07.012

水文水资源

基于数据驱动和系统动力学的水资源耦合系统建模方式对比研究

何中政 ¹^,² ,
郭俊 ¹^,² ,
贾本军 ³ ,
路佳豪 ¹^,² ,
郭海盟 ¹^,² ,
纪宸 ¹^,² ,
陈佳伟 ¹^,²

作者信息 +

Comparative study on modeling approaches for water resource coupling systems based on data-driven methods and system dynamics

Zhongzheng HE ¹^,² ,
Jun GUO ¹^,² ,
Benjun JIA ³ ,
Jiahao LU ¹^,² ,
Haimeng GUO ¹^,² ,
Chen JI ¹^,² ,
Jiawei CHEN ¹^,²

Author information +

文章历史 +

PDF (3742K)

摘要

【目的】复杂水资源耦合系统受物理机制不明、影响因素众多等影响，其建模分析属于当前水文水资源领域研究重难点之一，明晰数据驱动及系统动力学(SD)等方法在该领域的实用性与精准度，对水资源科学管理意义重大。【方法】基于研究团队前期研究成果，以长江上游流域供水-发电-环境(WPE)耦合系统为研究对象，选取1998—2020年数据，利用数据驱动中的11种典型方法，与SD模型展开对比研究，系统评估不同方法在复杂水资源耦合系统建模中的表现。【结果】研究结果表明：(1)除SD模型外，其余模型均有不同程度过拟合，SD模型表现最佳，各项变量模拟R²均值约为0.81,对系统变化解释性强，MAPE均值约为11%,预测精度高；(2)多元线性回归(MLR)模型表现相对较好，各项变量模拟R²均值约为0.57,MAPE均值约为19%。【结论】SD模型能有效解决复杂水资源耦合系统问题，模型稳定性和可靠性较好，但对建模人员的复杂系统理论方法掌握水平要求高；而MLR模型虽无法全面刻画WPE系统，但能满足基本分析需求，操作简便且易于实践。相关研究成果可为复杂水资源系统建模分析提供参考。

Abstract

[Objective] Due to unclear physical mechanisms and numerous influencing factors, modeling analysis of complex water resource coupling systems is one of the key challenges in the current research on hydrology and water resources. It is of great significance for the scientific management of water resources to clarify the practicality and accuracy of method such as data-driven method and system dynamics(SD).[Methods] Based on the previous research achievements of the research team, the water supply-power generation-environment(WPE) coupling system in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin was taken as the research object. Using data from 1998 to 2020, 11 typical data-driven method were compared with the SD model to systematically evaluate their performance in the modeling of complex water resource coupling systems.[Results] The result showed that:(1) except for the SD model, all the other models exhibited different degrees of overfitting. The SD model demonstrated the best performance, with an average simulated R² of approximately 0.81 for all variables, showing strong explanatory power for system changes, and an average MAPE of approximately 11%, indicating high prediction accuracy.(2) The multiple linear regression(MLR) model performed relatively well, with an average simulated R² of approximately 0.57 for all variables and an average MAPE of about 19%.[Conclusion] The SD model can effectively solve the problems of complex water resource coupling systems, demonstrating strong stability and reliability. However, it requires modelers to have a high level of proficiency in complex system theories and method. Although the MLR model cannot comprehensively characterize the WPE system, it can meet the basic analysis requirements with simple operation and high practical applicability. The relevant research findings can provide a reference for the modeling and analysis of complex water resource systems.

关键词

水资源耦合系统 / 系统动力学 / 回归分析 / 数据驱动 / 长江上游流域 / 建模分析 / 模型评估 / 影响因素

Key words

water resource coupling system / system dynamics / regression analysis / data-driven / upper reaches of Yangtze River Basin / modeling analysis / model evaluation / influencing factors