考虑决策偏好的梯级水库群水量优化调度策略研究

Research on optimal water scheduling strategies for cascade reservoir groups considering decision-making preferences

摘要

【目的】全球气候变化、人口增长及社会活动加剧，致使水资源时空分布变异，给水资源开发利用带来挑战。梯级水库群水量调度对优化水资源配置意义重大，但现有研究在考虑决策者对缺水模式和时间的偏好上存在不足。【方法】为解决水资源调配难题，构建以供水缺额最小为主要目标的梯级水库群水量优化调度模型，提出供水缺额总量控制、集中式分布、宽浅式分布3种缺水模式策略，以及调整不同时段权重的缺水时间策略，并以头屯河流域为实例展开分析。【结果】在缺水模式策略实例分析中，来水频率p=50%时，宽浅式分布模式供水缺额最小(49.37万m³),集中式分布模式最大(179.74万m³),总量控制分布方案居中(97.33万m³);来水频率p=95%和p=75%时，虽然3种模式供水缺额总量相近，但宽浅式分布模式下缺水分布更均匀。在缺水时间策略实例分析中，以来水频率p=95%为例，采用该策略后，3—5月供水缺额从5.84万m³、573.58万m³、624.66万m³降低至4.90万m³、13.40万m³、12.46万m³,但其他月份缺额从3 249.62万m³增加至4 422.32万m³,供水缺额总量基本不变。【结论】研究所提出的策略验证有效，宽浅式分布模式在保障供水稳定性上优势明显；缺水时间策略可降低特定时段供水缺额，但无法减少总量，只是转移缺水时段。研究成果可为梯级水库群水量调配提供参考。

Abstract

[Objective] Global climate change, population growth, and intensified social activities have led to variations in the spatiotemporal distribution of water resources, posing challenges to the development and utilization of water resources. Optimizing the water scheduling of cascade reservoir groups is crucial for water resource allocation. However, current research lacks sufficient consideration of decision-makers' preferences for water shortage patterns and time.[Methods] To address the challenges in water resource allocation, an optimal water volume scheduling model for cascade reservoir groups was established with the primary objective of minimizing water supply deficits. Three water shortage pattern strategies—total water supply deficit control, centralized distribution, and wide-shallow distribution—were proposed, along with water shortage time strategies that adjusted weights across different periods. Then, an analysis was conducted using the Toutun River Basin as a case study.[Results] In the case study of water shortage pattern strategies, when the inflow frequency was p=50%, the wide-shallow distribution pattern result ed in the smallest supply deficit(493 700 m³), the centralized distribution pattern result ed in the largest deficit(1 797 400 m³), and the total water supply deficit control pattern fell in between(973 300 m³). When the inflow frequencies were p=95% and p=75%, although the total supply deficits under the three patterns were similar, the water shortage was more evenly distributed under the wide-shallow distribution pattern. In the analysis of the water shortage time strategy, using p=95% as an example, after applying the strategy, the water supply deficits in March to May decreased from 58 400 m³, 5 735 800 m³, and 6 246 600 m³ to 49 000 m³, 134 000 m³, and 124 600 m³, respectively. However, the deficits in other months increased from 32 496 200 m³ to 44 223 200 m³, and the total water supply deficit remained essentially unchanged.[Conclusion] In summary, the proposed strategies are proven effective. The wide-shallow distribution pattern demonstrates clear advantages in ensuring supply stability. The water shortage time strategy can reduce water supply deficits in specific periods, but it does not reduce the total deficit—it only redistributes the time of the shortage. The findings can serve as a reference for water allocation of cascade reservoir groups.

关键词

梯级水库群 / 水量调度 / 决策偏好 / 缺水模式策略 / 缺水时间策略 / 影响因素

Key words

cascade reservoir group / water volume scheduling / decision-making preferences / water shortage pattern strategy / water shortage time strategy / influencing factors

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(52209024)

国家自然科学基金项目(42271044)

江西省自然科学基金项目(20243BCE51170)