全球变暖与城镇化背景下极端气候演变及归因分析:基于宿迁市1955—2024年观测数据

孙周亮; 席慧; 朱明娟; 方琼; 李英睿; 王敏; 李涛

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.08.003

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2026, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (8) : 26 -48. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.08.003

复杂灾害链与水旱巨灾风险评估专栏

全球变暖与城镇化背景下极端气候演变及归因分析:基于宿迁市1955—2024年观测数据

孙周亮 ¹^,²^,³ ,
席慧 ¹^,²^,³ ,
朱明娟 ⁴ ,
方琼 ⁴ ,
李英睿 ¹^,²^,³ ,
王敏 ¹^,²^,³ ,
李涛 ¹^,²^,³

作者信息 +

Evolution and attribution analysis of extreme climate under global warming and urbanization: based on observed data from Suqian City during 1955—2024

Zhouliang SUN ¹^,²^,³ ,
Hui XI ¹^,²^,³ ,
Mingjuan ZHU ⁴ ,
Qiong FANG ⁴ ,
Yingrui LI ¹^,²^,³ ,
Min WANG ¹^,²^,³ ,
Tao LI ¹^,²^,³

Author information +

文章历史 +

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摘要

【目的】揭示南北气候过渡带城市极端气候演变规律,为宿迁市防灾减灾、水资源调度与气候韧性建设提供科学支撑。【方法】采用宿迁4个气象站1955—2024年逐日气温、降水观测数据,依托线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验、去趋势预置白MK检验、Pettitt突变检验识别气候序列演变特征;构建44项极端气候指标体系,刻画极端降水、极端气温、复合极端事件演变规律;借助偏相关分析、逐步回归、分段多元回归、分层方差分解量化全球变暖、大气环流、城镇化三类驱动因子的作用强度。【结果】近70年区域年降水总量无显著趋势与突变,降水结构发生一定转型:中雨频次减少,暴雨、短时极端降水、夜间降水占比持续上升,降水趋于短时均匀分布;年均气温以0.28~0.38℃/10 a速率极显著升高,1993年全域同步发生均值突变,呈现昼夜不对称增温特征,夜间低温升温速率显著高于日间,气温日较差持续收窄,冷事件衰减幅度远超暖事件增长幅度;干热、干冷为主要复合极端类型,暖湿、冷湿事件发生频次极低,气候风险逐步由冷干主导转向暖干主导;方差分解结果显示全球变暖独立方差解释占比23.2%,大尺度环流、局地城镇化独立贡献分别为3.1%、8.8%,多因子耦合交互可解释13.4%气温变异;分段回归结果显示高速城镇化会削弱环流与全球变暖的局地气候响应,城镇化无独立显著线性升温效应。【结论】1955—2024年宿迁气候发生转型,昼夜不对称增温、降水极端化、复合风险暖干化为三大核心特征。全球变暖主导区域气温变化,城镇化仅通过长期累积作用改变气候状态,边际升温效应不显著。相关结论可为南北气候过渡带同类城市气候适应、灾害防控提供参考。

Abstract

[Objective] The evolution patterns of extreme climate in cities within the north-south climate transition zone are revealed, thereby providing scientific support for disaster prevention and mitigation, water resources regulation, and climate resilience construction in Suqian City. [Methods] Daily temperature and precipitation observation data from four meteorological stations in Suqian during 1955—2024 were used. Linear trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, the trend-free pre-whitening MK test, and the Pettitt abrupt change test were applied to identify evolution characteristics of climatic series. A system consisting of 44 extreme climate indicators was constructed to analyze evolution patterns of extreme precipitation, extreme temperature, and compound extreme events. Partial correlation analysis, stepwise regression, piecewise multiple regression, and hierarchical variance decomposition were used to quantify the effects of three driving factors, namely, global warming, atmospheric circulation, and urbanization. [Results] Over the past 70 years, no significant trend or abrupt change was detected in annual total precipitation, while a remarkable transformation was observed in precipitation structure. The frequency of moderate rainfall events decreased, and the proportions of rainstorms, short-duration extreme precipitation, and nighttime precipitation continuously increased, leading to shorter and more evenly distributed precipitation processes. The annual average temperature increased extremely significantly at a rate of 0. 28~0. 38 ℃ per decade, and consistent abrupt changes occurred across the whole study area in 1993. Diurnal asymmetric warming characteristics were observed. The warming rate of nighttime low temperature was significantly higher than that of daytime temperature, and the diurnal temperature range was continuously reduced. The reduction in cold events was far greater than the increase in warm events. Dry-warm and dry-cold compound extreme events were dominant, while warm-wet and cold-wet events occurred at very low frequencies, indicating a shift in climate risk from cold-dry dominance to warm-dry dominance. According to variance decomposition result, an independent variance contribution of 23. 2% was obtained for global warming, and independent contributions of 3. 1% and 8. 8% were obtained for large-scale atmospheric circulation and local urbanization, respectively. A total of 13. 4% of temperature variation was explained by multi-factor coupling interaction. Piecewise regression result showed that the local response intensity of regional climate to atmospheric circulation and global warming was weakened by rapid urbanization, and no significant linear warming effect was detected for urbanization. [Conclusion] A systematic transformation of climate features is identified in Suqian during 1955—2024, with diurnal asymmetric warming, intensified extreme precipitation, and warm-dominated compound climate risks as the three core characteristics. Global warming dominates regional temperature variations. Urbanization alters climate conditions only through long-term cumulative effects, whereas its marginal warming effect is insignificant. The findings can provide a reference for climate adaptation and disaster prevention in similar cities within the north-south climate transition zone.

关键词

降水结构转型 / 昼夜不对称增温 / 极端气候 / 复合极端事件 / 宿迁市 / 南北气候过渡带 / 气候归因 / 降雨

Key words

precipitation structure transformation / diurnal asymmetric warming / extreme climate / compound extreme events / Suqian City / north-south climate transition zone / climate attribution / rainfall