基于复杂网络的水电站运行安全风险事件及其演化特性研究

Operational safety risk events of hydropower stations and their evolution characteristics based on complex networks

摘要

【目的】水电站运行风险之间存在复杂的因果耦合效应和链式传播,不仅加速了风险事件的动态演化,还增加了风险后果的不可控性和难以预测性。科学识别水电站风险事件及其演化特性,可为水电站安全运行提供重要支撑。【方法】通过对水电站历史风险事件台账进行文本数据挖掘,提取风险触发事件、风险过程事件、风险后果事件及其发展脉络关系信息,构建风险事件的复杂网络模型,定量研究风险事件发展过程的网络拓扑特性与演化特性。【结果】构建的水电站风险传播网络由102个节点和125条有向边组成。其中,“切除机组”节点出度为29,“开关跳闸”节点入度为5,“下游水位异常”节点接近中心性和特征向量中心性均为1,“切除机组→外送通道中断”具有最高边介数;链条“隔离刀闸设备故障→三相电流不平衡→外送通道中断→全部开关断开→全站停电”具有最高的传递概率。【结论】水电站风险网络中节点和链条在风险传播中的功能存在显著差异。出度高与接近中心性高的节点为潜在风险源;特征向量中心性高的节点在网络结构中占据核心地位入度高的节点易成为风险汇聚点;边介数高的链条是关键传导通道,具有显著的桥接作用。高概率的风险演化路径揭示了风险事件间的强因果耦合关系,如“切除机组→外送通道中断→全部开关断开”等关键链条在网络中传播能力强,需重点部署监测与联动防控机制。

Abstract

[Objective] Complex causal coupling effects and cascading propagation exist among operational risks in hydropower stations, which accelerate the dynamic evolution of risk events and increase the unpredictability and uncontrollability of their consequences. Scientific identification of risk events and their evolution characteristics is essential for ensuring the safe operation of hydropower stations. [Methods] Through text data mining of historical risk event logs from hydropower stations, triggering events, process events, consequence events, and their developmental relationships were extracted. A complex network model of risk events was constructed, and the network topology and evolutionary characteristics of the risk event development process were quantitatively analyzed. [Results] The constructed risk propagation network for hydropower stations consisted of 102 nodes and 125 directed edges. The “unit cut-off” node had an out-degree of 29, the “circuit breaker trip” node had an in-degree of 5, and the “abnormal downstream water level” node had both closeness centrality and eigenvector centrality of 1. The edge “unit cut-off → external transmission channel interruption” had the highest edge betweenness. The chain “isolating switch equipment failure → three-phase current imbalance → external transmission channel interruption → all circuit breakers disconnected → total station blackout” had the highest transmission probability. [Conclusion] Significant functional differences are observed among nodes and chains in risk propagation within the hydropower station risk network. Nodes with high out-degree and high closeness centrality are potential risk sources. Nodes with high eigenvector centrality occupy core positions in the network structure, and nodes with high in-degree tend to become risk aggregation points. Chains with high edge betweenness are critical transmission channels with significant bridging effects. High-probability risk evolution paths reveal strong causal coupling relationships among risk events. Key chains such as “unit cut-off → external transmission channel interruption → all circuit breakers disconnected” exhibit strong propagation capability within the network, requiring prioritized deployment of monitoring and coordinated prevention and control mechanisms.

关键词

水电站 / 风险事件 / 复杂网络 / 风险演化 / 传递概率 / 影响因素 / 拓扑特性 / 风险传播

Key words

hydropower station / risk event / complex network / risk evolution / transmission probability / influencing factors / topological characteristics / risk propagation

基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3212700)

中国长江电力股份有限公司项目(Z242302042)

湖北省自然科学基金项目(2024AFD356)