青海湖水量平衡动态特征与驱动机制研究

王贺; 魏加华; 侯铭垒; 侯胜玲; 沈延青

doi:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.08.009

水利水电技术（中英文） ›› 2026, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (8) : 122 -135. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.08.009

变化环境下青藏高原水资源与生态系统演变机制及调控研究专栏

青海湖水量平衡动态特征与驱动机制研究

王贺 ¹^,²^,³ ,
魏加华 ¹^,²^,³^,⁴ ,
侯铭垒 ⁴ ,
侯胜玲 ¹^,²^,³ ,
沈延青 ⁵

作者信息 +

Research on dynamic characteristics and driving mechanisms of water balance in Qinghai Lake

He WANG ¹^,²^,³ ,
Jiahua WEI ¹^,²^,³^,⁴ ,
Minglei HOU ⁴ ,
Shengling HOU ¹^,²^,³ ,
Yanqing SHEN ⁵

Author information +

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摘要

【目的】青海湖水位持续上升已对周边生态安全和基础设施构成威胁,厘清其水量收支的动态变化及核心驱动因素,对生态保护和风险防控具有重要作用。【方法】利用分布式水文模型SWAT、同位素和结构方程模型(SEM),研究了气候变化背景下青海湖中长期水情演变及驱动机制。【结果】结果表明,青海湖水位变化呈现显著的阶段特征,2004年前以年均0.078m速率下降,之后以0.187m速率回升,回升速率为前期的2.4倍。水平衡存在两种典型状态:正平衡态以径流主导(37.8%)和降水协同(31.6%)为主要特征,负平衡态则表现为蒸发主导(41.5%)和径流抑制(25.9%)的特征,并识别出蒸发量>40×10⁸ m³/a且径流量<14×10⁸ m³/a的系统失衡临界阈值。地下水是关键调节要素,年均补给量为8.11×10⁸ m³,其中2024年补给量达(19.01±3.52)×10⁸ m³,夏季补给速率达(6.99±1.24)×10⁶ m³/d,且北部排泄显著高于其他区域。【结论】揭示了降水-径流-地下水补给的时空耦合驱动机制,为青海湖水资源管理提供科学依据。

Abstract

[Objective] The continuous rise in the water level of Qinghai Lake poses a threat to surrounding ecological security and infrastructure.Clarifying the dynamic changes in its water balance and the core driving factors is crucial for ecological protection and risk prevention and control. [Methods] The distributed hydrological model SWAT,isotopic tracers,and structural equation modeling(SEM) were used to investigate the medium-to long-term hydrological evolution and driving mechanisms of Qinghai Lake under climate change. [Results] The result indicated that the water level changes of Qinghai Lake exhibited distinct phased characteristics.Before 2004,it declined at an average rate of 0.078 m per year,and then recovered at a rate of 0.187 m per year,with the recovery rate being 2.4 times that of the previous decline rate.Water balance exhibited two typical states.The positive balance state was primarily characterized by runoff dominance(37.8%) synergized with precipitation(31.6%),while the negative balance state was characterized by evaporation dominance(41.5%) and suppressed runoff(25.9%).A critical threshold for system imbalance was identified as evaporation exceeding 40×10⁸ m³/a and runoff below 14×10⁸ m³/a.Groundwater was a key regulatory component,with an average annual recharge of 8.11×10⁸ m³.Notably,the recharge in 2024 reached(19.01±3.52)×10⁸ m³,with a peak summer recharge rate of(6.99±1.24)×10⁶ m³/d.Furthermore,the recharge in the northern region was significantly higher than in other regions. [Conclusion] The spatiotemporal coupled driving mechanisms of precipitation-runoff-groundwater recharge are revealed,providing a scientific basis for the water resource management of Qinghai Lake.