基于组合赋权—TOPSIS模型的斯里兰卡北中省水资源承载力与时空变化影响分析

Analysis of water resources carrying capacity and spatiotemporal variation impacts in North Central Province of Sri Lanka based on combined weighting—TOPSIS model

摘要

【目的】在气候变化与人类活动的双重胁迫下,水资源承载力成为区域可持续发展的刚性约束,而调水工程作为重构水资源空间均衡的重要手段,其承载力评估关乎工程效益与生态安全。【方法】针对斯里兰卡水资源时空分布不均与短缺问题,聚焦当地“南水北调”工程,采用基于熵权—CRITIC组合赋权的TOPSIS模型,在评估过程中考虑了气候变化的潜在波动影响,系统分析了调水工程对北中省11个区域水资源格局时空演变的影响。【结果】结果表明:工程显著优化了水资源配置,生活需水增长37.9%,农业需水涨幅26%(部分被灌溉效率提升抵消),生态需水小幅增加;水资源承载力在空间上呈现中部低、东北与西南部高的分布布局,差异性逐渐缩小;调水工程实施后指标趋于均衡,农业节水成为长期调控关键。【结论】调水工程使得中北省多数区域由“较弱”等级(Ⅱ级)升至“中等”等级(Ⅲ级),但各区域间仍存在差异,未来应建立基于水资源供需动态评估的调水优先级调控机制,为“一带一路”框架下跨流域水资源协同管理提供科学依据。

Abstract

[Objective] Under the dual pressures of climate change and human activities, water resources carrying capacity has become a critical constraint on regional sustainable development. Water transfer projects, as a vital means to reconstruct the spatial equilibrium of water resources, require carrying capacity assessment that is crucial for project benefits and ecological safety. [Methods] To address the uneven spatiotemporal distribution and scarcity of water resources in Sri Lanka, a focus was placed on the local “South-North Water Transfer” project. The TOPSIS model based on entropy weight-CRITIC combined weighting was employed, and the potential fluctuating impacts of climate change were considered during the assessment. The effects of the water transfer project on the spatiotemporal evolution of water resource patterns across 11 regions in the North Central Province were systematically analyzed. [Results] The result showed that the project significantly optimized water resource allocation. Domestic water demand increased by 37. 9%, and agricultural water demand rose by 26%(partially offset by improved irrigation efficiency). Ecological water demand experienced a modest increase. Spatially, water resources carrying capacity exhibited a distribution pattern characterized by lower values in the central region and higher values in the northeast and southwest, with disparities gradually diminishing. After the implementation of the water transfer project, the evaluation indicators tended toward equilibrium, and agricultural water conservation became the key focus for long-term regulation. [Conclusion] The water transfer project elevates the water resources carrying capacity of most regions in North Central Province from “Weaker”(Grade Ⅱ) to “Moderate”(Grade Ⅲ), but disparities among regions still exist. Future efforts should focus on establishing a priority regulation mechanism for water transfer based on dynamic assessments of water supply and demand. The findings provide a scientific basis for coordinated inter-basin water resource management within the Belt and Road framework.

关键词

水资源承载力 / 调水工程 / 组合赋权 / TOPSIS模型 / 时空变化 / 斯里兰卡 / 气候变化 / 影响因素

Key words

water resources carrying capacity / water transfer project / combined weighting / TOPSIS model / spatiotemporal variation / Sri Lanka / climate change / influencing factors

基金资助

中国科学院中国-斯里兰卡联合科教中心资助项目

国家科技重大专项(2025ZD1203304)