基于WEP-L模型的兰西城市群蓝绿水水资源特征及影响因素分析

Analysis of characteristics and influencing factors of blue and green water resources in Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration based on WEP-L Model

摘要

【目的】兰西城市群为黄河流域上游重要的跨省市城市群,其本底环境脆弱且城市化发展迅速,因此有必要对其区域水资源情况进行深度解析。【方法】综合考虑自然侧与社会侧水循环,构建区域WEP-L模型,考虑不同水平年,基于广义水资源概念及水足迹理论,分别从行政区与子流域尺度,量化兰西城市群蓝绿水资源现状与耗用情况,并通过地理探测器方法分析其主要影响因素。【结果】结果表明:区域多年平均水资源量为1 764.73亿m³,其中绿水资源量占79.14%。不同市农业水足迹占总水足迹的比例在58.45%~99.06%之间;兰州市工业水足迹最大,2009年时达6.61亿m³;兰州市与西宁市生活水足迹较大,旅游业对海北个别子流域生活水足迹影响显著。海拔与供水总量分别是对区域蓝绿水资源量与总水足迹解释力最强的因素。【结论】兰西城市群上游区域水资源丰富且耗水较小,适宜设置水资源保护区,但要加强旅游业发展管理。下游各市应依据不同子流域的耗水特征制定发展策略,因地制宜提高水资源利用率。该研究结果可为区域水资源管理与配置提供科学依据。

Abstract

[Objective] The Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration, an important cross-provincial urban agglomeration in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin, features a fragile underlying environment and rapid urbanization. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct an in-depth analysis of the regional water resources. [Methods] A regional WEP-L model was constructed by comprehensively considering the natural and social aspects of the water cycle. Considering different hydrological years, and based on the concept of generalized water resources and water footprint theory, the current status and consumption of blue and green water resources in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration were quantified at both administrative region and sub-basin scales. The main influencing factors were then analyzed using the geodetector method. [Results] The results showed that the multi-year average water resource amount in the region was 176. 473 billion m³, of which green water resources accounted for 79. 14%. The proportion of agricultural water footprint to total water footprint in different cities ranged from 58. 45% to 99. 06%. Lanzhou had the largest industrial water footprint, reaching 0. 661 billion m³ in 2009. Lanzhou and Xining had relatively large domestic water footprints, and tourism significantly affected the domestic water footprint of individual sub-basins in Haibei. Altitude and total water supply were the factors with the strongest explanatory power for the regional blue and green water resource amount and the total water footprint, respectively. [Conclusion] The upstream area of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration is rich in water resources and has relatively low water consumption, making it suitable for establishing water resource protection areas, although tourism development management should be strengthened. Downstream cities should formulate development strategies based on the water consumption characteristics of different sub-basins and improve water resource utilization efficiency according to local conditions. The findings can provide a scientific basis for regional water resource management and allocation.

关键词

蓝绿水 / 水足迹 / WEP-L模型 / 地理探测器 / 城市群 / 多空间尺度 / 黄河流域 / 广义水资源

Key words

blue and green water / water footprint / WEP-L model / geodetector / urban agglomeration / multi-spatial scale / Yellow River Basin / generalized water resources

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(W2412160)

国家自然科学基金项目(42471049)