考虑余震丛集特征的余震概率地震危险性分析

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of aftershock considering the clustering characteristics of aftershock swarms

摘要

一次强震事件发生后，余震通常会在短时间内，一定空间范围内聚集发生，表现为余震的丛集特征。余震概率地震危险性分析对于评估震后余震的危险性具有重要意义，然而，目前尚未有研究能够在余震概率地震危险性分析时，考虑余震丛集的时间和空间分布特征。针对这一问题，本文提出了一种能够考虑余震丛集特征的余震概率地震危险性分析方法。将基于有限震源的传染型余震序列(finite-source epidemic-type aftershock sequence，FS-ETAS)模型与余震概率地震危险性分析相结合，基于FS-ETAS模型生成大量模拟余震序列，并采用蒙特卡洛模拟求解余震危险性。为验证本文提出方法，选取我国地震科学实验场中龙门山断裂附近区域为目标场地，分析M8.0主震发生后的余震危险性，并与基于Reasenberg-Jones(R-J)模型和真实余震序列的分析结果进行对比。研究结果表明，考虑余震的丛集特征会增大余震的危险性，且更加符合真实余震场景，说明在余震危险性分析时有必要考虑余震的丛集特征。

Abstract

After a significant earthquake, aftershocks typically occur within a short time interval and a confined spatial region, exhibiting distinct clustering characteristics. Aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) is crucial for assessing post-earthquake seismic hazard. However, existing studies have not yet incorporated both the temporal and spatial clustering characteristics of aftershocks into APSHA. To address this issue, this study proposes an APSHA framework that explicitly accounts for the clustering characteristics of aftershocks. By integrating the finite-source epidemic-type aftershock sequence (FS-ETAS) model with APSHA, a large number of synthetic aftershock sequences are generated, and Monte Carlo simulation is employed to estimate the aftershock hazard. To validate the proposed approach, the Longmen Shan fault zone within the China Seismic Experimental Site is selected as the target region. The aftershock hazard following an M8.0 mainshock is analyzed and compared with results derived from the Reasenberg-Jones (R-J) model and actual aftershock sequences. The results indicate that considering aftershock clustering characteristics increases the estimated hazard level and better aligns with real aftershock scenarios, illustrating the necessity of considering clustering characteristics in aftershock hazard assessment.

关键词

余震 / 丛集特征 / 地震危险性 / ETAS模型

Key words

aftershock / clustering characteristics / seismic hazard / ETAS model

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(52278492)

国家自然科学基金项目(52408502)

国家自然科学基金项目(52408562)