三北防护林生态工程建设对可持续发展目标的影响

Effects of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program construction on sustainable development goals

摘要

【目的】三北防护林生态工程（TNSFP）是国家级重大林业生态工程，实现了发展理念从改造自然到人与自然和谐共生的转型。工程显著改善区域生态、增进民生福祉，但工程建设对区域可持续发展目标（SDGs）的具体贡献与作用机制尚不明确。【方法】本研究以1985-2022年为研究时段，以TNSFP工程区为研究对象，选取植被覆盖度（FVC）和碳储量、产水量、土壤保持、防风固沙、生境质量5种生态系统服务为生态建设指标，结合社会经济数据，构建面板数据模型，系统分析TNSFP实施期间生态系统服务与SDGs的关联特征及其空间异质性。【结果】（1）1985-2022年间，TNSFP地区SDGs综合水平整体提升，空间上呈现显著的东南高、西北低分布格局，区域差异明显；（2）15个SDGs指标间以协同关系为主（占比84.76% ~ 87.62%），各指标之间的关系随时空动态波动；（3）面板数据模型结果显示，不同生态系统服务与SDGs指标的关联特征存在显著差异：碳储量与80%的SDGs指标存在显著相关，其中46.67%的指标呈正相关，关联最为广泛；产水量与40%的SDGs指标呈显著正相关；土壤保持与清洁饮水目标（SDG6）呈负相关，但与气候行动（SDG13）和土地保护（SDG15）呈正相关；防风固沙与3个SDGs指标协同。这种差异化关联模式提示，生态工程优化需针对不同服务类型的功能特征进行精准调控。【结论】本研究揭示了TNSFP通过提升生态系统服务供给与SDGs协同改善存在显著关联，表明该工程对区域可持续发展具有积极的支撑作用，可为生态脆弱区生态工程建设提供科学参考。

Abstract

[Objective] The Three-North Shelter Forest Program (TNSFP) is China’s longest-lasting and largest-scale forestry ecological initiative, representing a paradigm shift from the traditional concept of conquering nature to one of harmonious coexistence between humans and nature. Although the program has substantially improved regional ecosystems and enhanced human well-being, its specific contributions to the sustainable development goals (SDGs) within the project area and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. [Method] Focusing on the TNSFP region during 1985–2022, this study selected fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and five ecosystem services, i.e. carbon storage, water yield, soil conservation, wind erosion prevention, and habitat quality as ecological indicators. Combined with socio-economic data, we constructed panel data models to systematically analyze the relationships between ecosystem services and SDGs and their spatial heterogeneity. [Result] (1) From 1985 to 2022, overall SDG performance in the TNSFP region improved significantly, exhibiting a distinct southeast-northwest gradient with pronounced spatial heterogeneity; (2) synergistic interactions prevailed among the 15 SDG indicators (accounting for 84.76%–87.62%), with relationships fluctuating spatiotemporally; (3) panel data models revealed significant differences in how ecosystem services relate to SDGs: carbon storage showed significant correlations with 80% of the SDG indicators, with 46.67% of the total indicators exhibiting positive correlations, demonstrating the most extensive associations; water yield was significantly and positively correlated with 40% of the SDG indicators; soil conservation was negatively correlated with clean water and sanitation (SDG6) but positively correlated with climate action (SDG13) and life on land (SDG15); and wind erosion prevention showed synergistic relationships with three SDG indicators. This differentiated correlation pattern suggests that optimizing ecological projects require precise regulation based on the functional characteristics of different service types. [Conclusion] This study demonstrates that the TNSFP is significantly associated with synergistic improvements in SDGs by enhancing ecosystem service supply, indicating that the program plays a positive supporting role in regional sustainable development. These findings provide scientific insights for ecological restoration initiatives in environmentally fragile regions.

关键词

碳储量 / 脆弱区 / 生态系统服务 / InVEST模型 / 面板数据分析

Key words

carbon storage / fragile region / ecosystem services / InVEST model / panel data analysis

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金（青年基金）项目(42001260)