大宁河流域景观格局演变及其对径流泥沙的影响

Evolution of landscape pattern and its impact on runoff and sediment in the Daning River Basin of southwestern China

摘要

【目的】探讨景观格局演变对流域生态水文过程的影响机制，为景观空间配置优化、水资源管理及土壤侵蚀防治提供科学依据。【方法】选取三峡库区大宁河流域作为研究区，基于 2000、2010 和 2020 年土地利用数据计算景观组成与空间配置指标，利用经率定和验证的 SWAT 模型模拟子流域尺度年径流深和产沙模数，并采用 XGBoost-SHAP 模型识别降雨、地形、土地利用及景观格局因子的相对贡献和影响方向。【结果】（1）2000、2010、2020 年，大宁河流域土地利用以林地和耕地为主，二者总占比长期超过 84%；林地略有增加，耕地和草地减少，建设用地和水域面积大幅增加，增幅分别为 449.06% 和 161.55%。（2）景观格局整体由破碎化向聚集化演变，表现为 AI、COHESION 和 CONTAG 升高，而 PD、ED 和 LSI 下降，说明景观聚集度和结构连通性总体增强。（3）年径流深呈“西北高、东南低”的空间格局，产沙模数表现为“北部、中部高、东南部低”的分布特征，高产沙区主要对应景观破碎化程度较高和人类活动较强的区域。（4）驱动因素分析表明，径流过程主要受降雨和地形控制，而泥沙输出对土地利用结构和景观破碎化更为敏感。【结论】大宁河流域径流与产沙过程具有差异化驱动机制，维持林地和其他生态斑块的空间完整性，优化坡耕地布局，并降低高风险区域的景观破碎化程度，可有效缓解流域水土流失风险。

Abstract

[Objective] This study aims to elucidate the mechanisms through which landscape pattern dynamics affecting watershed ecohydrological processes, thereby providing a scientific basis for optimizing landscape configuration, improving water resource management, and mitigating soil erosion. [Method] Using the Daning River Basin in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of southwestern China as a case study, landscape composition and configuration metrics were derived from land-use data of 2000, 2010, and 2020. A calibrated and validated SWAT model was used to simulate annual runoff depth and specific sediment yield at the sub-basin scale, while XGBoost-SHAP was applied to quantify the relative importance and effects of precipitation, topography, land use, and landscape-pattern variables. [Result] (1) Forest and cropland remained dominant, together accounting for more than 84% of the basin. Forest area increased slightly, whereas cropland and grassland declined; built-up land and water bodies expanded by 449.06% and 161.55%, respectively. (2) The landscape shifted overall from fragmentation toward aggregation, as indicated by increases in AI, COHESION, and CONTAG and decreases in PD, ED, and LSI, suggesting enhanced aggregation and structural connectivity. (3) Annual runoff depth was generally higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast, whereas specific sediment yield was higher in the northern and central regions and lower in the southeast. High-sediment-yield areas largely coincided with fragmented landscapes and intensive human disturbance. (4) Runoff depth was controlled primarily by precipitation and topography, whereas sediment yield was more sensitive to land-use composition and landscape fragmentation. [Conclusion] Runoff depth and sediment yield in the Daning River Basin respond to different dominant controls. Maintaining the spatial integrity of forests and other ecological patches, optimizing the distribution of sloping cropland, and reducing fragmentation in high-risk areas are essential for mitigating soil-erosion risk.

关键词

景观格局 / 泥沙 / 径流 / XGBoost-SHAP 模型 / 大宁河流域

Key words

landscape patterns / sediment / runoff / XGBoost-SHAP model / Daning River Basin

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基金资助

中国林业科学研究院基本科研业务费专项(CAFYBB2023MA011)

国家自然科学基金项目(32301670)