基于PLUS-InVEST模型的白邑喀斯特盆地土地利用与碳储量时空变化分析及预测

Spatial-temporal analysis and prediction of land use change and carbon storage in Baiyi Karst Basin based on PLUS and InVEST Model

摘要

开展土地利用变化下碳储量评估是碳循环研究的重要内容.以白邑喀斯特盆地为研究区,基于1990、2000、2010和2020年土地利用数据,分析1990-2020年土地利用时空变化,应用PLUS模型预测2030年土地利用空间格局,基于InVEST模型探讨碳储量时空变化及不同情景下分布.结果表明,1990-2020年研究区耕地面积占比由46.50%降至36.17%,林地占比由37.31%升至57.70%;碳储量从1.21×10⁶t增至1.56×10⁶t.自然发展情景下,2020-2030年研究区碳储量增长约4.49%;生态保护情景下,耕地持续减少,林地继续增加,碳储量增长约5.77%.白邑喀斯特盆地耕地向林地的持续转化是碳储量增加的主要原因.

Abstract

Investigating land use changes and carbon storage dynamics is a fundamental basis for achieving carbon neutrality. This study focuses on the Baiyi Karst Basin as the research area, analyzing the spatial and temporal changes in land use from 1990 to 2020 based on land use data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The PLUS model was used to predict the spatial pattern of land use in 2030, and the InVEST model was applied to explore the spatial and temporal variations in carbon storage and its distribution under different scenarios. The results show that from 1990 to 2020 the main characteristic of land use change in the study area was the conversion of cropland to forest land, with the proportion of cropland decreasing from 46.50% to 36.17%, and forest land increasing from 37.31% to 57.70%. Carbon storage increased from 1.21×10 ⁶t to 1.56×10 ⁶t during the same period. Under the natural development scenario, carbon storage in the study area is projected to grow by 4.49% from 2020 to 2030. Under the ecological protection scenario, cropland continues to decrease while forest land increases, leading to a 5.77% growth in carbon storage. The increase in carbon storage in the Baiyi Karst Basin is primarily driven by the continuous conversion of cropland to forest land.

关键词

碳储量 / 土地利用变化 / PLUS模型 / InVEST模型 / 白邑喀斯特盆地

Key words

carbon storage / land use change / PLUS model / InVEST model / Baiyi Karst Basin

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金(42161006)

云南省基础研究计划项目(202301BF070001-004)