近40年河南省农业生产空间演变特征及驱动因素

Evolution characteristics and driving factors of agricultural production space in Henan Province in the past 40 years

摘要

河南省作为我国的农业大省和粮食主产区之一,研究其农业生产空间的时空变化特征及驱动因素对耕地保护与粮食安全具有重要意义.以河南省1980年、1990年、2000年、2010年、2020年5期土地利用数据为基础,综合利用GIS空间分析和地理探测器模型,对1980-2020年河南省农业生产空间变化的时空分异特征及主要驱动因素进行探究.结果发现:1980-2020年河南省农业生产空间面积总体减少,减少的农业生产空间主要向农村生活空间、城镇生活空间和工业生产空间等建设用地转换;且各时期农业生产空间面积变化和空间分布特征差异明显,以2000-2010年农业生产空间面积变化最多.1980-2020年,河南省农业生产空间综合动态度呈现先升高后降低的变化趋势,空间上总体呈东北-西南向的分布格局,东-西方向扩张趋势强于南-北方向,农业生产空间动态变化活跃区域主要分布在郑州市北部的部分县域.人口密度、第一产业比例、GDP、城镇化率、年均气温、第二产业比例和农业机械化水平是河南省农业生产空间变化的主要驱动因子,且单一因子作用均小于双因子的交互作用,表现为非线性增强或双因子增强的协调增强效果.

Abstract

Henan Province is a big agricultural province and one of the main grain producing areas in China. It is of great significance to study the spatio-temporal characteristics and main driving factors of agricultural production space for the protection of cultivated land and food security. Based on the land use data of Henan Province in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, this paper comprehensively used GIS spatial analysis and geodetector to explore the spatio-temporal characteristics and main driving factors of agricultural production spatial change in Henan Province during 1980-2020. The results indicated that: from 1980 to 2020, the total area of agricultural production space decreased in Henan Province, and the reduced agricultural production space was mainly converted to construction land of rural living space, urban living space and industrial production space. The area changes and distribution characteristics of agricultural production space in different periods were significantly different, and the area changes of agricultural production space in 2000-2010 were the most significant. From 1980 to 2020, the synthetical dynamic degree of agricultural production space in Henan Province showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The general distribution pattern is northeast-southwest, and the expansion trend in the east-west direction was stronger than that in the south-north direction. The regions with active dynamic degree of agricultural production space were concentrated in some counties in the north of Zhengzhou. Population density, proportion of the primary sector, GDP, urbanization rate, annual mean temperature, proportion of secondary sector and the level of agricultural mechanization were the main driving factors of agricultural production space changes in Henan Province, and the effect of single factor was smaller than that of double factor interaction, which was manifested as nonlinear enhancement or coordination enhancement effect of double factor enhancement.

关键词

农业生产空间 / 时空特征 / 影响因素 / 地理探测器

Key words

agricultural production space / temporal and spatial characteristics / influencing factors / geodetector

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基金资助

河南省软科学研究计划项目(252400410298)