非洲油气勘探开发现状、前景与投资方向
Current Status, Prospects and Investment Directions of Oil and Gas Exploration and Development in Africa
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基于标普全球、国际能源署等商业数据库和BP等国际油公司公开信息,对非洲油气资源分布特征、油气发现、未来勘探开发潜力、油气投资现状与走势进行系统分析与研究,明确非洲未来勘探开发前景与油气投资方向.研究表明:(1)非洲油气资源丰富,但勘探程度与油气发现不均.地理上,北非和西非油气勘探程度高、发现储量多、为传统产油区,东非和南非勘探程度低、发现储量少,是天然气勘探新兴热点区;地质上,被动大陆边缘盆地油气最为富集,占62%,其次为裂谷和克拉通盆地.(2)非洲油气勘探开发潜力大,已发现资源储采比高,中长期开发潜力好,待发现资源剩余圈闭多,未来勘探开发潜力大,其中海上剩余圈闭资源量占比82.5%,是未来勘探重点.(3)在全球油气投资强劲增长的拉动下,非洲油气投资在疫情后快速恢复,油气产量快速回升,特别是天然气产量已超过疫情前水平,非洲已成为欧洲及亚太地区重要的油气进口来源区.(4)随着能源转型对天然气需求的增加,天然气将逐渐超越石油,成为非洲未来油气构成的主体和重要投资对象;非洲海域特别是深水勘探潜力巨大,是获取规模发现与投资的现实领域;非常规资源潜力大,但技术与成本要求高,是非洲成熟盆地未来规模增储与投资的潜在领域.
Based on commercial databases such as S&P Global and the International Energy Agency (IEA), as well as public information from international oil companies like BP, this study systematically analyzes and researches the distribution characteristics of oil and gas resources in Africa, oil and gas discoveries, future exploration and development potential, and the current status and trends of oil and gas investment, so as to clarify the future exploration and development prospects and oil and gas investment directions in Africa. The study shows follows. (1) Africa is rich in oil and gas resources, but the exploration degree and oil and gas discoveries are uneven. Geographically, North Africa and West Africa have a high degree of oil and gas exploration, large discovered reserves, and are traditional oil-producing powers. East Africa and South Africa have a low exploration degree and small discovered reserves, but they are emerging hotspots for natural gas exploration. Geologically, passive continental margin basins are the most oil and gas-enriched, accounting for 62%, followed by rift basins and craton basins. (2) Africa has great potential for oil and gas exploration and development. The reserve-production ratio of discovered resources is high, and the medium- and long-term development potential is favorable. There are many remaining prospects with undiscovered resources, showing great potential for future exploration and development.Among them, the remaining prospect resources in offshore areas account for 82.5%, making them the focus of future exploration. (3) Driven by the strong growth of global oil and gas investment, Africa's oil and gas investment has recovered rapidly after the pandemic, and oil and gas production has rebounded rapidly. In particular, natural gas production has exceeded the pre-pandemic level, and Africa has become an important source of oil and gas imports for Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. (4) With the increasing demand for natural gas due to energy transition, natural gas will gradually surpass oil to become the main body of Africa’s future oil and gas composition and an important investment target. Africa's marine areas, especially deepwater exploration, have huge potential and represent a realistic field for obtaining large-scale discoveries and investment. Unconventional resources in Africa have great potential, but they require high technology and costs, making them potential fields for large-scale reserve addition and investment in mature basins in the future.
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国家科技重大专项(2016ZX05029005)
中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目(2021DJ31)
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