城市儿童商业活动空间的时空分异与驱动因素研究——以合肥市为例

Research on the Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Driving Factors of Urban Children's Commercial Activity Spaces: a Case Study of Hefei

摘要

儿童商业活动空间是儿童友好城市建设的核心载体. 以合肥市为研究对象，基于 POI 数据与社会人文数据，综合运用核密度估计、标准差椭圆分析、平均最近邻分析、基尼系数及地理探测器，解析 2015—2024 年儿童商业活动空间的时空分异与驱动因素. 结果表明:①空间格局呈“双核集聚—梯度扩散”特征，老城区与滨湖新区构成协同发展核心，外围县域服务覆盖不足. ②业态结构深度转型，科创体验类与体育游乐类空间成为增长前沿，特殊教育类长期匮乏形成结构性短板. ③空间演变受多维度因素交互驱动，政策引导与交通条件构成核心驱动力，市场供需张力与技术替代效应共同塑造空间分异. 最后提出空间优化策略. 研究成果可为儿童友好城市空间规划及公共服务资源优化配置提供决策参考.

Abstract

Children's commercial activity spaces are core carriers of child-friendly city construction. Taking Hefei as a case study, this paper integrates POI data with socio-humanistic data and applies kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse analysis, average nearest neighbor analysis, the Gini coefficient, and Geodetector to examine the spatiotemporal differentiation and influencing factors of children's commercial activity spaces from 2015 to 2024. The results show that:①The spatial pattern is characterized by dual-core agglomeration and gradient diffusion, with the old urban area and Binhu new district forming two synergistic cores, while peripheral counties remain underserved. ②The format structure has undergone a profound transformation, with science and technology innovation experience spaces and sports and recreation spaces emerging as major growth areas, whereas special education spaces remain chronically scarce, constituting a structural weakness. ③Spatial evolution is driven by the interaction of multiple factors. Policy guidance and transportation are core driving forces, while market supply-demand tension and technology substitution jointly shape spatial differentiation. Optimization strategies are then proposed. The findings provide decision support for child-friendly city spatial planning and the optimal allocation of public service resources.

关键词

POI 数据 / 儿童商业活动空间 / 时空演变 / 驱动机制 / 儿童友好城市 / 合肥市

Key words

POI data / children's commercial activity spaces / spatiotemporal evolution / driving mechanism / child-friendly city / Hefei

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基金资助

国家社会科学基金项目(22BSH085)

安徽省住房城乡建设科学技术计划项目(2023-YF035)

合肥工业大学科研项目(W2022JSFW0956)