石首麋鹿栖息地土地覆盖动态变化及其驱动因子——基于保护区内外的对比分析

Land Cover Dynamics and Driving Factors in the Habitat of Milu in Shishou: A Comparative Analysis Inside and Outside the Conservation Area

摘要

麋鹿(Elaphurus davidianus)是我国特有的湿地物种和国家一级重点保护野生动物，水域、湿地等核心生境的维持对种群恢复和发展具有重要意义.本研究基于1993—2023年生长季的Landsat遥感影像，以湖北石首麋鹿主要栖息地为研究对象，选取湖北石首麋鹿国家级自然保护区(CA)和石首三合垸非保护区(NCA)进行对比，系统分析其土地覆盖类型、动态度、转移矩阵和归一化植被指数的动态变化特征.结合Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Pearson相关分析和地理探测器等方法，综合评估保护区和非保护区的土地覆盖动态特征及驱动因素.CA和NCA均以水域、湿地、林地、草地和裸地为主要的土地覆盖类型，近30年，两区域水域和湿地面积显著减少，且主要转为草地.CA林地因人工干预呈现先增加后减少趋势，但NCA林地持续增加.CA综合土地覆盖动态度(1.4%)及水域、湿地和草地的单一土地覆盖动态度(-2.5%、-1.9%和0.8%)均低于NCA(1.8%、-2.9%、-2.1%和4.5%)，反映出NCA土地覆盖变化更为剧烈.驱动因素方面，年降水量是CA土地覆盖变化的主导影响因子，而极端气温和极端水位主导NCA变化.相关性分析显示，CA的裸地变化与年平均气温呈显著正相关;NCA的林地和裸地变化与年平均气温呈显著正相关，湿地变化与年平均气温呈显著负相关，林地变化与最高水位显著负相关.本研究揭示了石首麋鹿生境水域与湿地退化压力及保护区内外差异化的驱动机制，并指出非保护区生境受极端气温与极端水位的双重影响，其演变不确定性更高.研究结果可为麋鹿生境质量评估、非保护区动态监测及差异化保护策略的制定提供数据支持.

Abstract

Milu (Elaphurus davidianus) is a representative wetland specialist and a first-class state-protected wildlife species in China. Maintaining and restoring its water and wetland habitats is paramount for the restoration and development of its wild populations. Based on Landsat remote sensing images from the growing seasons of 1993 to 2023, this study investigated the main habitats of Milu in Shishou, Hubei Province. A comparative analysis was conducted between the Shishou Milu National Nature Reserve (CA) and the non-conservation area of Sanheyuan (NCA) to systematically assess the dynamics of land cover types, dynamic degrees, transition matrices, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Integrated methodologies, including the Mann-Kendall trend test, Pearson correlation analysis, and geographic detector were used to evaluate land cover dynamics and their driving factors. The results showed that, water, wetland, forest, grassland, and barren land were the dominant land cover types in both CA and NCA. Over the past 30 years, both regions experienced a significant reduction in water and wetland areas, which were primarily converted to grassland. The forest cover in CA initially increased and then decreased due to human intervention, while it exhibited a continuous increasing trend in NCA. The integrated land-use dynamic degree was lower in CA (1.4%) than in NCA (1.8%). The single dynamic degrees for water, wetland, and grassland in CA (-2.5%, -1.9%, and 0.8%) were also lower than those in NCA (-2.9%, -2.1%, and 4.5%), collectively indicating more rapid and intensive land cover changes in NCA. Regarding driving factors, annual precipitation was identified as the dominant factor driving land cover changes in CA, while extreme temperatures and water levels were the primary drivers of changes in the NCA. Correlation analysis revealed that barren land changes in CA were significantly and positively correlated with mean annual temperature. In NCA, forest and barren land changes were significantly, and positively associated with mean annual temperature, while wetland changes exhibited a significant negative correlation. Furthermore, forest land was significantly and negatively impacted by maximum water levels. This study highlighted the pressure of water and wetland degradation in the habitats of Milu in Shishou, clarified the differentiated driving mechanisms within and outside the conservation area, and emphasized the higher uncertainty of habitats in the non-conservation area due to extreme temperatures and water levels. The results of this study could provide critical data support for the habitat quality assessment of Milu, dynamic monitoring of the non-conservation area, and the formulation of differentiated conservation strategies.

关键词

麋鹿 / 石首 / 三合垸 / 土地覆盖 / 地理探测器

Key words

Elaphurus davidianus / Shishou / Sanheyuan / land cover / geographic detector

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金面上项目(32371682)

湖北省教育厅科学技术研究项目(D20221301)

教育部湿地生态与农业利用工程研究中心(长江大学)项目(KFT202101)