中国绿色发展与经济韧性耦合协调时空分异及影响因素

Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Influencing Factors of Coupling Coordination Between Green Development and Economic Resilience in China

摘要

为推进绿色发展与经济韧性协同共赢，实现生态保护与经济增长有机统一，运用耦合协调度模型、空间计量模型分析 2013—2023 年中国 31 个省份绿色发展与经济韧性耦合协调的时空演变格局及影响因素. 结果表明:①绿色发展与经济韧性耦合协调度逐年提升，空间非均衡性显著，京、津与东南沿海地区展现出较高的耦合协调水平；耦合协调度空间正相关性显著，形成“同质特征为主、异质特征为辅”的空间关联模式. ②人口集聚与科学技术主要促进本地耦合协调度的提升；政府调控、产业结构与教育水平对本地与邻近地区的耦合协调度均具有显著正向作用；信息化水平能够促进本地耦合协调度提升，而对邻近地区产生明显的负向空间溢出效应. ③各影响因素对耦合协调度的作用存在显著区域异质性，东部地区主要表现为正向促进作用，中西部和东北地区则以负向抑制作用为主. 基于此，提出创新协同发展战略、聚焦关键影响因素及推行因地制宜发展模式等建议.

Abstract

To promote the synergistic win-win of green development and economic resilience, and achieve the organic integration of ecological protection and economic growth, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution pattern and influencing factors of the coupling coordination between green development and economic resilience in 31 provinces in China from 2013 to 2023 using coupling coordination degree model and spatial econometric model. The results show that: ①The coupling coordination degree between green development and economic resilience has increased year by year, with significant spatial imbalance. The Beijing-Tianjin region and the southeast coastal areas exhibit relatively high levels of coupling coordination. There is significant positive spatial correlation in the coupling coordination degree, forming a spatial association pattern dominated by homogeneous characteristics and supplemented by heterogeneous ones. ②Population agglomeration and scientific and technological progress mainly promote the improvement of local coupling coordination degree. Government regulation, industrial structure, and education level have significant positive effects on both local and neighboring regions' coupling coordination degrees. Informatization level can promote the improvement of local coupling coordination degree, but generates obvious negative spatial spillover effects on neighboring regions. ③The influence of various factors on the coupling coordination degree exhibits significant regional heterogeneity. The eastern region mainly shows positive promoting effects, while the central, western, and northeastern regions are primarily characterized by negative inhibiting effects. Based on this, suggestions are proposed such as formulating an innovation-driven collaborative development strategy, focusing on key influencing factors, and promoting development models tailored to local conditions.

关键词

经济韧性 / 绿色发展 / 耦合协调 / 空间计量模型 / 影响因素

Key words

economic resilience / green development / coupling coordination / spatial econometric model / influencing factors

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基金资助

山东省重点研发计划(软科学)重点项目(2026RZB0606)

国家自然科学基金项目(42201228)