To address the impact of uncertainty in High-Speed Railway (HSR) passenger demand on capacity allocation, line planning is optimized during the timetable compilation phase by considering a mode that uses a basic line planning as the main framework and a backup line planning as a supplement. The basic scheme corresponds to normal operations and must be implemented under all demand scenarios, while the backup scheme is prepared in advance and included in line planning, with its implementation determined on actual passenger flow. Using discrete scenarios to describe demand uncertainty, a two-stage stochastic programming model is constructed. In the first stage, the basic line planning and its corresponding ticket allocation strategy are optimized, and the backup line planning is simultaneously generated. In the second stage, after demand scenarios are realized, the activation status of backup trains and their ticket allocation strategy are decided based on actual passenger flow. After the model is transformed into an equivalent integer linear programming by linearization techniques, a Column Generation (CG) algorithm is designed to solve it, then the Zhengzhou-Xi’an HSR is used as a case for verification. The results show that compared with Gurobi Optimizer, the CG algorithm can obtain high-quality feasible solutions within a short time. In contrast to the deterministic method that directly adopts average demand to replace stochastic demand, the transportation scheme derived from the stochastic programming model increases the objective value by 11.05%. Moreover, compared with the operation mode relying only on a single basic train, the objective value of the optimized method can be further raised by 6.94%. This method presents prominent advantages in revenue improvement and demand fluctuation adaptation, and can balance enterprise benefits and service quality simultaneously.
现实中,受突发事件和极端天气等影响,旅客需求呈现一定随机性,该特性可能体现在旅客出行时间、出行目的地、出行需求量等方面。随机需求参数的输入,可根据历史数据归纳出尽可能多的经典场景并获知其概率分布。经典的样本平均近似方法(Sample Average Approximation,SAA),通过生成一定数量的随机变量样本,计算样本均值来近似估计数学期望,将难以直接求解的随机优化问题转化为确定性优化问题[17]。基于SAA方法,本试验从实际客流数据中随机抽取10个需求场景,验证本文所提方法的有效性。10个场景下的具体旅客需求如图2所示。图中颜色越深表示需求量越高。
WANGL, JIAL M, QINY, et al. A Two-Layer Optimization Model for High-Speed Railway Line Planning [J]. Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A (Applied Physics & Engineering), 2011, 12 (12): 902-912.
[2]
佟璐.高速铁路客运产品设计中的客流分配理论与方法研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2013.
[3]
TONGLu. Passenger Flow Assignment Theory and Methods of the High-Speed Railway Passenger Transport Service Planning [D]. Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong University, 2013. in Chinese
PUSong, HongxiaLÜ, CHENDingjun, et al. High Speed Railway Passenger Train Line Planning Optimization Based on Improved Column Generation Algorithm [J]. Journal of the China Railway Society, 2015, 37 (9): 1-7. in Chinese
[6]
GOERIGKM, SCHMIDTM. Line Planning with User-Optimal Route Choice [J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2017, 259 (2): 424-436.
[7]
靳国伟.高速铁路分担率预测与列车开行方案设计反馈优化方法研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2020.
[8]
JINGuowei. Feedback Optimization Method of Modal Share Forecasting and Line Planning for High-Speed Rail [D]. Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong University, 2020. in Chinese
[9]
ZHOUY, YANGH, WANGY, et al. Integrated Line Configuration and Frequency Determination with Passenger Path Assignment in Urban Rail Transit Networks [J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2021, 145: 134-151.
ZHONGLinhuan, XUGuangming, WURunfa, et al. Optimization of Line Planning for High-Speed Rail Network Based on Time-Varying Section Demand [J]. Journal of Railway Science and Engineering, 2023, 20 (12): 4461-4472. in Chinese
WANGHongye, XiaoyanLÜ, ZHOULiangjin, et al. Intelligent Seat Allotment Method for Railway Passenger Train Based on Passenger Flow Forecast [J]. China Railway Science, 2013, 34 (3): 128-132. in Chinese
[14]
XUG M, LIUX Y, ZHONGL H, et al. Seat Allocation Optimization for Railways Considering Social Distancing during the Post-Pandemic Period [J]. Journal of Transport & Health, 2023, 33: 101691.
ZHAOXiang, ZHAOPeng, LIBo. Study on High-Speed Railway Ticket Allocation under Conditions of Multiple Trains and Multiple Train Stop Plans [J]. Journal of the China Railway Society, 2016, 38 (11): 9-15. in Chinese
[17]
孙珏,李宗平,周霞.铁路单列车票额分配优化研究[J].综合运输,2019,41(7):83-87.
[18]
SUNJue, LIZongping, ZHOUXia. Optimization of Ticket Allocation for Railway Single Train [J]. China Transportation Review, 2019, 41 (7): 83-87. in Chinese
ZHOUWenliang, JIANGZhigang, CHAINaijie, et al. Comprehensive Optimization of Line Planning, Ticket Pricing and Seat Allocation of High-Speed Railway [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2024, 24 (3): 151-163. in Chinese
LIBo, ZHAOPeng, SONGWenbo. Optimal Ticket Allocation for High Speed Railway Based on Risk Decision of Railway Department [J]. China Railway Science, 2018, 39 (5): 137-144. in Chinese
[23]
XUG M, ZHONGL H, WUR F, et al. Optimize Train Capacity Allocation for the High-Speed Railway Mixed Transportation of Passenger and Freight [J]. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 2022, 174: 108788.
[24]
CAOC X, FENGZ Y. Optimal Capacity Allocation under Random Passenger Demands in the High-Speed Rail Network [J]. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 2020, 88: 103363.
[25]
PANH C, YANGL X, LIANGZ, et al. New Exact Algorithm for the Integrated Train Timetabling and Rolling Stock Circulation Planning Problem with Stochastic Demand [J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2024, 316 (3): 906-929.
[26]
ZHUC, WUJ J, GUOX, et al. Joint Optimization of Bus Scheduling and Seat Allocation for Reservation-Based Travel [J]. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2024, 163: 104631.
[27]
PUS, ZHANS G. Two-Stage Robust Railway Line-Planning Approach with Passenger Demand Uncertainty [J]. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2021, 152: 102372.
FANDingyuan, PENGQiyuan, ZHAOJun, et al. A Column Generation Solution Algorithm for Solving Wagon Flow Routing Optimization Problem [J]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2026, 61 (2): 478-487, 498. in Chinese
WANGFang, YANAn, GAOMeng, et al. A Combined SVM-XGBoost Model Forecasting Method for Railroad Passenger Turnover Considering the Impact of Epidemic [J]. China Transportation Review, 2024, 46 (5): 114-121, 134. in Chinese