基于水文水动力模型的大石河流域洪水演进模拟及风险评估

Simulation of flood evolution and risk assessment in Dashi River Basin based on hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling

摘要

本文以大石河流域平原段为研究区域，通过构建一维河道与二维地表耦合的水文水动力模型，对大石河流域遭遇10、20、50、100a一遇4个不同重现期暴雨的洪水演进过程进行模拟。分析现有防洪工程行洪能力和研究区淹没影响，结合洪水灾害系统理论构建风险评估模型，从危险性、暴露性角度，采用层次分析法评估研究区洪水风险分布情况。结果表明，大石河干流堤防基本满足20a一遇防洪标准，但少部分河段超高不足存在漫溢风险。大石河遭遇超20a一遇洪水时，研究区内将遭受不同程度的淹没，淹没总面积随重现期年限的增加递增，100a一遇洪水总淹没面积105.38km²淹没耕地75.98km²，最大淹没水深10.34m，最大洪水流速6.43m/s，受灾人口20.91万人，经济损失39.73亿元。高风险地区面积占4%，面积为11.31km²，主要分布在窦店镇西部，琉璃河镇，石楼镇东部，集中在河网密集、地势平坦且经济发达地区。研究成果有利于为区域洪水灾害防御提供理论依据。

Abstract

This paper focuses on the plain section of the Dashi River basin as the research area, and simulates the flood routing process during rainstorms using four different return periods, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years by constructing a coupled one-dimensional river channel and two-dimensional surface hydrological and hydrodynamic model. The flood-carrying capacity of existing flood control projects and assess the impact of inundation in the study area are analyzed. Based on flood disaster system theory, a risk assessment model is constructed. From the perspectives of hazard and exposure, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to evaluate the distribution of flood risks in the study area. The results show that the embankment of the main stream of the Dashi River basically meets the flood control standard of a 20-year return period, but there is a risk of overflow in a small part of the river section due to insufficient elevation. When the Dashi River experiences a flood exceeding a 20-year return period, the study area will suffer varying degrees of inundation. The total submerged area increase with the return period. In the event of a flood that occurs once every 100 years, the total submerged area reaches 105.38km ², including 75.98km ² of farmland, the maximum submerged depth is 10.34m, and the maximum flood flow velocity is 6.43m/s. The affected population numbers 209,100, and the economic loss amounts to 39.73 billion yuan. The high-risk areas, covering 4% of the total area and measuring 11.31km ², are primarily located in the western part of Doudian Town, Liulihe Town, and the eastern part of Shilou Town, concentrated in regions with dense river networks, flatter terrain, and a developed economy. The research results are conducive to providing a theoretical basis for regional flood disaster defense.

关键词

大石河 / 耦合模型 / 洪水模拟 / 层次分析法 / 风险评估

Key words

Dashi River / coupling model / flood simulation / analytic hierarchy process (AHP) / risk assessment

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(52369005)

国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3002902)

宁夏自然科学基金项目(2026AAC030114)