基于3SFCA法的北方旱区城市内涝灾害应急服务可达性评估

Assessment of emergency service accessibility in northern arid cities during waterlogging disaster based on 3SFCA method

摘要

气候变化导致极端降雨事件频发，北方城市暴雨内涝风险加剧。本文以内蒙古包头市昆都仑区中心城区为例，通过集成水文模型与空间分析方法评估内涝灾害对应急服务可达性的影响。首先，利用InfoWorks ICM模型模拟P=50a和P=100a情景下的内涝过程，评估风险等级。其次，通过起讫点(origin-destination，OD)矩阵和车速衰减模型分析路网通行状态，确定应急救援服务的实际覆盖范围。最后，采用三步移动搜寻(three-step floating catchment area，3SFCA)法计算多种应急救援服务的可达性指数并评估其救援能力，揭示资源配置与空间覆盖特征。研究结果表明，暴雨内涝形成包含滞流蓄积、径流饱和和积水消退3个阶段，随着降雨强度的增加，城市系统从“局部超载-可控恢复”向“链式损毁-系统崩溃”演变。北方旱区城市内涝灾害具有显著的链式溃败效应，当降雨强度增加10.7%时，可导致内涝面积扩张48.3%、路网阻断率提升约23%，进而使交警、医疗、消防的黄金救援区分别减少10.3%、43.7%和15.1%。3种应急服务呈现差异化失效模式，交警因路网依赖性强最易失效，医疗资源因过度集中而萎缩，消防因协同不足更易形成救援孤岛。与南方城市相比，北方旱区城市存在基础设施设计标准偏低与资源布局失衡的双重短板，更易触发系统性失效且恢复能力不足。结果为北方旱区城市防灾减灾提供定量决策依据。

Abstract

Climate change has led to more frequent extreme rainfall events, exacerbating the risk of urban flooding in northern cities. This paper takes the central urban area of Kundulun District, Baotou City, Inner Mongolia, as an example, and assesses the impact of flooding disasters on the accessibility of emergency services through integrated hydrological models and spatial analysis methods. First, the InfoWorks ICM model is used to simulate the flooding process under P=50a and P=100a rainfall scenarios to assess the risk level. Second, the road network traffic status is analyzed using the OD (origin-destination) matrices and vehicle speed reduction model to determine the actual coverage of emergency rescue services. Finally, the accessibility index of various emergency rescue services is calculated using the three-step floating catchment area (3SFCA) method and their rescue capabilities are assessed, revealing resource allocation and spatial coverage characteristics. The results show that the formation of urban flooding due to rainstorms includes three stages: stagnation storage, runoff saturation, and recession. As rainfall intensity increases, the urban system evolves from “local overload-controllable recovery” to “chain damage-system collapse”. Urban flooding in arid northern regions exhibits a significant chain reaction effect. A 10.7% increase in rainfall intensity can lead to a 48.3% expansion of the flooded area and a 23% increase in road network disruption, consequently reducing the critical rescue zones for traffic police, medical services, and fire services by 10.3%, 43.7%, and 15.1%, respectively. These three emergency services exhibit differentiated failure modes: traffic police are most vulnerable due to their strong dependence on road networks; medical resources shrink due to over-concentration; and fire services are more prone to becoming isolated rescue zones due to insufficient coordination. Compared to southern cities, arid northern cities suffer from both lower infrastructure design standards and unbalanced resource allocation, making them more susceptible to systemic failures and less resilient. The results provide quantitative decision-making support for disaster prevention and mitigation in arid northern cities.

关键词

内涝灾害 / 应急服务可达性 / 北方旱区城市 / InfoWorks ICM模型 / 三步移动搜寻(3SFCA)法

Key words

waterlogging disaster / emergency service accessibility / northern arid cities / InfoWorks ICM model / three-step floating catchment area (3SFCA) method

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基金资助

内蒙古自治区直属高校基本科研业务费项目(57)

国家自然科学基金项目(72404153)