考虑灾民心理风险感知的应急物资配送中心选址研究

Research on site selection of emergency supplies distribution centers considering psychological risk perception of affected populations

摘要

为提高应急救援效率并兼顾灾民心理需求，本文构建了一种考虑灾民心理风险感知的应急物资配送中心多目标选址模型，以平衡心理风险最小化与物流成本控制的双重目标。首先，基于前景理论的价值函数，构建了以物资到达时间偏差为参考点的心理风险量化模型，刻画灾民的非线性心理反应。其次，构建了混合整数非线性多目标选址优化模型，并设计一种改进后带修复的遗传算法对模型进行求解，通过动态修复机制保障解可行性，采用归一化加权法实现多目标动态权衡。最后，通过雅安芦山地震的算例分析和对关键参数进行灵敏度分析，验证了模型与算法的有效性。结果表明，心理风险最小化与物流成本控制存在非线性冲突，需动态权衡。研究结果可为灾后救援中同步优化物流效率与灾民心理提供参考。

Abstract

To enhance emergency rescue efficiency while addressing the psychological needs of affected populations, this paper develops a multi-objective site selection model for emergency distribution centers that incorporates psychological risk perception of disaster victims, aiming to balance the dual objectives of minimizing psychological risk and controlling logistics costs. Firstly, based on the value function of prospect theory, a psychological risk quantification model is constructed, using the deviation in relief arrival time as the reference point to capture the non-linear psychological responses of affected individuals. Secondly, a mixed-integer nonlinear multi-objective site selection optimization model is formulated. An improved genetic algorithm with a repair mechanism is designed to solve the model. This algorithm employs a dynamic repair mechanism to ensure solution feasibility and utilizes a normalized weighting method for dynamic trade-offs among the multiple objectives. Finally, the effectiveness of the model and algorithm is validated through a case study of the Yaan Lushan earthquake and sensitivity analysis of key parameters. The results demonstrate a non-linear conflict between minimizing psychological risk and controlling logistics costs, necessitating dynamic trade-offs. The findings provide valuable insights for synchronously optimizing logistics efficiency and the psychological well-being of affected populations in post-disaster relief operations.

关键词

灾民心理风险感知 / 配送中心选址 / 前景理论 / 多目标优化 / 遗传算法

Key words

psychological risk perception of affected populations / emergency supplies distribution center site selection / prospect theory / multi-objective optimization / genetic algorithm

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金青年项目(71902074)

国家自然科学基金面上项目(72271110)