中国粮食因旱损失的驱动机制与减损模拟研究

Study on driving mechanisms and mitigation simulation of drought-induced grain losses in China

摘要

本文基于2000-2022年中国31个省(区、市)面板数据，探究了干旱胁迫对粮食生产损失的作用机制并评估减损措施的效能。首先，采用趋势产量分离法量化粮食生产损失，并结合标准化降水蒸散发指数(standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index，SPEI-12)识别干旱强度。其次，通过基准回归与门槛回归模型捕捉粮食因旱损失的边际效应、多维异质性及非线性特征。最后，设计情景模拟评估不同调控策略的减灾效果。结果表明，干旱胁迫对粮食生产损失的直接效应表现为SPEI-12指数每下降1个单位，引致单产损失显著增加30.4 kg/hm²。此效应呈现多维异质性，东北及西部地区存在显著负向弹性响应，中东部地区干旱强度的边际损失弹性未呈现统计显著性，雨养区相较于灌溉区表现出更为显著的粮食因旱损失敏感性，水利基础设施低密度区较中等密度区呈现20.7%的边际效应衰减。粮食因旱致损具有显著的非线性特征，当干旱强度突破-0.6522时，粮食生产损失加剧；在-0.6522~0.5162的区间内，损失有所缓解；而当转为湿润状态后，干旱胁迫效应基本消失。模拟结果显示，灌溉面积扩大50%可使粮食因旱损失率降至2.92%。建议通过构建“损失量化-机制解构-阈值预警-情景优化”的完整链条，为干旱风险分区防控提供科学依据。

Abstract

This paper, based on panel data from 31 provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in China from 2000 to 2022, explores the mechanisms of drought stress on grain production losses and evaluates the effectiveness of mitigation measures. First, the trend yield separation method is used to quantify grain production losses, and the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI-12) is combined to identify drought intensity. Second, the marginal effects, multidimensional heterogeneity, and nonlinear characteristics of drought-induced grain losses are captured through benchmark regression and threshold regression models. Finally, scenario simulations are designed to evaluate the disaster reduction effects of different regulatory strategies. The results show that the direct effect of drought stress on grain production loss is that for every 1 unit decrease in the SPEI-12 index, yield loss increases significantly by 30.4 kg/hm ². This effect exhibits multidimensional heterogeneity, significant negative elasticity responses are observed in the Northeast and Western regions, while the marginal loss elasticity of drought intensity in the Central and Eastern regions is not statistically significant. Rainfed areas show a more significant sensitivity to grain loss due to drought compared to irrigated areas, and areas with low-density water infrastructure show a 20.7% decrease in marginal effect compared to areas with medium-density infrastructure. Grain losses due to drought exhibit significant nonlinear characteristics. When drought intensity exceeds -0.6522, grain production losses intensify. Losses are somewhat mitigated within the range of -0.6522 to 0.5162, and the drought stress effect essentially disappears once the soil returns to a wet state. Simulation results show that increasing the irrigated area by 50% can reduce the grain loss rate due to drought to 2.92%. It is recommended to construct a complete chain of “loss quantification-mechanism deconstruction-threshold early warning-scenario optimization” to provide a scientific basis for regionalized drought risk prevention and control.

关键词

干旱胁迫 / 粮食生产损失 / 趋势产量分离法 / 标准化降水蒸散发指数 / 情景模拟

Key words

drought stress / grain production losses / trend yield separation method / SPEI / scenario simulations

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基金资助

湖北省社会科学基金重大项目(23ZD152)

全国统计科学研究重点项目(2024LZ006)