基于藤Copula函数的高温干旱复合胁迫对夏玉米产量的影响研究

Study on the impact of high temperature and drought combined stress on summer maize yield based on the Vine Copula function

摘要

为探究高温干旱复合胁迫对夏玉米产量的影响，本文基于河南省91个气象站1991-2020年逐日最高气温、逐日降水量和逐年产量数据，识别逐年花期高温强度、干旱强度和减产率，利用藤Copula函数构建高温强度、干旱强度和减产率的三维联合累积概率分布函数，分析花期高温干旱复合胁迫对夏玉米产量的影响。结果表明，对河南夏玉米花期高温强度、干旱强度和减产率分别进行边际分布拟合时，最优边际分布函数均为广义极值分布(generalized extreme value distribution，GEV)，R²分别为0.99、0.99和0.93。利用最优Copula函数对各变量进行二维联合，拟合出的理论概率与实际的经验概率均接近，拟合精度较高。总体上随着胁迫强度的增加，花期高温干旱复合胁迫造成河南夏玉米减产的概率增加，主要以重度和中度减产概率的增加为主。花期高温干旱复合胁迫下，夏玉米产量波动对干旱的敏感性要高于高温。研究结果有助于决策者和种植户更好地了解高温干旱复合事件对河南省夏玉米产量的潜在影响，对降低生产风险具有重要意义。

Abstract

To investigate the impact of combined high temperature and drought stress on summer maize yield, this paper uses daily maximum temperature, daily precipitation, and annual yield data from 91 meteorological stations in Henan Province from 1991 to 2020 to identify the annual high temperature intensity during flowering stage, drought intensity, and the yield reduction rate. A three-dimensional joint cumulative probability distribution function of high temperature intensity, drought intensity, and yield reduction rate is constructed using the Vine Copula function to analyze the impact of combined high-temperature and drought stress during flowering period on summer maize yield. The results show that when fitting the marginal distributions of high temperature intensity, drought intensity, and yield reduction rate during flowering period of Henan summer maize, the optimal marginal distribution functions are all generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions, with R ² values of 0.99, 0.99, and 0.93, respectively. Using the optimal Copula function to perform a two-dimensional joint stress on each variable, the fitted theoretical probabilities are close to the actual empirical probabilities, indicating high fitting accuracy. Overall, with increasing stress intensity, the probability of yield reduction in Henan summer maize due to combined high-temperature and drought stress during flowering increases, mainly due to an increase in the probability of severe and moderate yield reduction. Under combined stress of high temperature and drought during the flowering period, summer maize yield fluctuations are more sensitive to drought than to high temperature. The findings help policymakers and growers better understand the potential influence of combined high temperature and drought events on summer maize yields in Henan Province, and are of great significance for reducing production risks.

关键词

河南省 / 夏玉米 / 高温干旱 / 产量 / Copula函数

Key words

Henan Province / summer maize / heat and drought / yield / Copula function

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基金资助

河南省科技攻关计划项目(242102321027)

河南省科技攻关计划项目(242102320028)

国家重点研发计划专项课题项目(2024YFD2301301)

河南省重点研发专项项目(221111321400)