基于知识图谱的复合极端事件研究态势分析

Analysis of the research situation of compound extreme events based on knowledge graph

摘要

为有效了解和应对复合极端事件产生的灾害性影响，基于1995-2024年Web of Science核心期刊引文索引数据库1268篇文献，采用文献计量与知识图谱可视化方法，分析了复合极端事件的发展历程和研究现状，并从大气科学、水文科学和海洋科学领域分别总结了复合极端事件的研究热点及趋势。结果表明，近年来针对复合极端事件的研究迅速增长，其研究历程大致可分为起源探索期、初步发展期和快速兴起期3个阶段。气候变化背景下，降水、气温的耦合主导了较多复合极端事件，沿海国家由于受到海平面上升影响更大，对复合极端事件影响具有更高的敏感性。复合极端事件研究方法正朝着动态化、多变量和跨学科的方向发展。基于多学科领域交叉的复合极端事件研究已经成为一种趋势，未来应加强各领域间极端事件致灾组合情景刻画及归因分析的研究，深入了解气候变化背景下人类活动对复合极端事件的影响，进一步量化复合极端事件模式模拟、情景分析等方面的不确定性，以期更好地推动复合极端事件研究，有效应对复合极端事件带来的严峻挑战。

Abstract

To effectively understand and respond to the catastrophic impacts of compound extreme events, based on 1,268 literatures in the Web of Science core journal citation index database from 1995-2024, using bibliometrics and knowledge graph visualization methods, this paper analyzed the development history and research status of compound extreme events. The research hotspots and trends of compound extreme events are summarized across three disciplines: atmospheric, hydrology, and marine sciences, respectively. The results show that research on compound extreme events has been growing rapidly in recent years, and its research history can be roughly categorized into three distinct phases: the period of origin and conceptual exploration, the phase of initial development, and the period of rapid emergence. In the context of climate change, the interplay between precipitation and temperature has been identified as dominant driver of more compound extreme events. Moreover, coastal countries exhibit heightened vulnerability to such events due to their increased exposure to sea-level rise and associated impacts. Compound extreme events research is undergoing a significant transformation, characterized by a shift toward dynamic, multivariate, and interdisciplinary approaches. Notably, interdisciplinary research at the intersection of these fields is emerging as a prominent trend. Future efforts should prioritize several key areas: advancing scenario modeling and attribution analysis of compound extreme events, exploring the role of human activities in shaping these events in the context of climate change, and refining the quantification of uncertainties in compound extreme event simulations and scenario analyses. It is anticipated to promote the research on compound extreme events and effectively mitigate the impacts posed by compound extreme events.

关键词

复合极端事件 / 知识图谱 / 气候变化 / 多学科交叉 / 态势分析

Key words

compound extreme events / knowledge graph / climate change / interdisciplinary / situation analysis

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(52394232)

国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3014101)

国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3808601)

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2243300007)