能登半岛M _W7.6地震震前地表变形特征及前兆信息研究

Study on the surface deformation characteristics and precursor information of the M _W7.6 Noto Peninsula earthquake

摘要

2024年1月1日,日本能登半岛地区发生了M_W7.6地震,造成了巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡。为识别地震前兆,本文基于位移协调系数定量分析震前地表位移与地震活动性的演化特征,采用该区域震前10a的地震活动时空序列数据,系统解析了地震活动动态演化规律。通过处理震中150km范围内全球导航卫星系统测站的位移观测数据,深入揭示了震前地表形变特征,建立位移协调系数指标与地震活动强度的相关性模型,识别出显著的地震前兆信息。研究结果表明,本次地震为前震-主震-余震型地震,在地震发生前的10a间,能登半岛地区的地震活动呈现出活跃、平静、频繁的3个明显阶段。在能登半岛东北部及其邻近海域,围绕震源中心形成了一个浅层地震活动增强区。地震发生前,能登半岛地区地表位移方向指向东南方向,位移量在5~15mm之间波动变化。临近地震发生前,地表位移量增加,地表位移方向波动变化,地表位移表现出显著的不协调性。位移协调系数指标在地震孕育阶段无变化,地震活跃阶段出现明显突变,在地震发震前3d突增至0.97,在震后迅速下降。

Abstract

On January 1,2024,a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck the Noto Peninsula region of Japan,resulting in substantial economic losses and casualties.To identify earthquake precursors,this paper quantitatively analyzes the evolution characteristics of pre-earthquake surface displacement and seismic activity based on the displacement coordination coefficient.Using spatiotemporal sequence data of seismic activity in the region over the 10 years prior to the earthquake,the dynamic evolution patterns of seismic activity is systematically analyzed.By processing displacement observation data from global navigation satellite system(GNSS)stations within a 150km radius of the epicenter,the characteristics of pre-earthquake surface deformation are deeply elucidated.A correlation model between the displacement coordination coefficient index and seismic activity intensity is established,and the significant earthquake precursor information is discerned.The results indicate that this earthquake was a type of earthquake characterized by a foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequence.In the 10 years prior to the earthquake,seismic activity in the Noto Peninsula region exhibited three distinct phases:active,quiescent,and frequent.A shallow seismic activity enhancement zone had formed around the epicenter of the M _W7.6 earthquake in the northeastern part of the Noto Peninsula and its adjacent sea area.Prior to the earthquake,the surface displacement direction in the Noto Peninsula area was southeastward,with displacement fluctuations ranging from 5~15mm.Before the occurrence of the M _W7.6 earthquake,there was an increase in surface displacement,and the direction of surface displacement fluctuated,exhibiting significant inconsistency of surface displacement.The displacement coordination coefficient index remained constant during the earthquake preparation stage but showed a significant abrupt change during the activity seismic stage,surging to 0.97 three days before the M _W7.6 earthquake and then rapidly decreased post-earthquake.

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