华北冬小麦关键生长阶段日尺度复合高温干旱特征研究

Study on the characteristics of compound heat and drought events at daily scale during key growth stages of winter wheat in the North China Plain

摘要

气候变化背景下，为加深对华北平原冬小麦关键生长阶段复合高温干旱事件(compound heat and drought events，CHDEs)特征的理解，本文利用日尺度的标准化降水指数(standardized precipitation index，S_PI)和日最高温以及Copula函数，系统分析了冬小麦抽穗-开花阶段与开花-成熟阶段的复合高温干旱事件特征。结果表明，1961-2020年，冬小麦抽穗-开花阶段华北平原超过80%的站点日最高温显著升高(p<0.05)，63%以上的站点干旱化趋势显著(p<0.05)，而开花-成熟阶段日最高温有下降趋势，73%以上的站点干旱状况趋于缓解(p<0.05)。冬小麦的抽穗-开花阶段更容易发生高温主导的复合高温干旱事件，华北的西南部尤为突出，高温强度多集中于2.25~2.75℃，而在开花-成熟阶段，更容易发生干旱主导的复合高温干旱事件，干旱强度集中在-1.9~-1.7℃。与开花-成熟阶段相比，抽穗-开花阶段复合高温干旱事件发生更频繁，69.8%的站点轻度复合高温干旱事件同现重现期不到10a，且华北平原西部地区发生频率显著高于东部，同现重现期普遍比东部短5~10a。研究结果可为该地区冬小麦高温干旱复合事件的应对提供参考。

Abstract

To deepen our understanding of the characteristics of compound heat and drought events (CHDEs) during key growth stages of winter wheat in the North China Plain under the background of climate change, this paper systematically analyzes the characteristics of CHDEs during the spikelet-anthesis (SA) and anthesis-maturity (AM) stages of winter wheat using the daily-scale standardized precipitation index (S _PI), daily maximum temperature (T _max), and Copula function. The results show that from 1961 to 2020, during the SA stage of winter wheat, T _max significantly increased in over 80% of the stations in the North China Plain (p<0.05), and drought trend significantly increased in over 63% of the stations (p<0.05). However, during the AM stage, T _max showed a decreasing trend, and drought conditions tended to alleviate in over 73% of the stations (p<0.05). High-temperature-dominated CHDEs are more likely to occur during the SA stage of winter wheat, particularly in southwestern North China, where high temperatures are concentrated between 2.25~2.75℃. During the AM stage, drought-dominated CHDEs are more frequent, with drought intensities concentrated between -1.9~-1.7℃. Compared to the AM stage, CHDEs occur more frequently during the SA stage. 69.8% of the sites reported mild CHDEs with a recurrence interval of less than 10 years, and the frequency was significantly higher in the western part of the North China Plain than in the eastern part, with a recurrence interval generally 5~10 years shorter. These results can provide a reference for responding to combined heat-drought events in winter wheat in this region.

关键词

冬小麦 / 抽穗-开花 / 开花-成熟 / 复合高温干旱事件 / Copula函数 / 华北

Key words

winter wheat / spikelet-anthesis / anthesis-maturity / compound heat and drought events / Copula function / North China

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(42501092)