一种自适应局部加权回归的阶跃型滑坡变形监测预警方法

An adaptive local weighted regression-based method for monitoring and early warning of step-like landslide deformation

摘要

为提升对阶跃型滑坡变形规律的捕捉能力与预警精度，提出一种基于自适应局部加权回归的切线角预警方法。以变形加速度特征为驱动，自适应地将变形曲线划分为线性与非线性变形区，并引入动态时间窗口优化局部回归的数据长度，对线性区采用基于改进三次权重函数的局部线性回归，对非线性区采用基于自适应高斯权重函数的二次多项式回归。通过动态加权与迭代残差修正，增强模型对局部变形细节的敏感性和对数据噪声的鲁棒性。最终基于回归模型计算切线角以实现分级预警。以金沙江溪洛渡库区ALT滑坡为例进行验证。结果表明，所提方法能精准识别滑坡多阶段、间歇性的加速过程，计算的切线角曲线与实际变形趋势高度吻合，预警信息相较于传统方法更为及时、可靠。提升了阶跃型滑坡预警的精度和时效性，验证了在处理复杂变形数据的有效性和工程适用性。

Abstract

To improve the capability of capturing the deformation pattern and increase the accuracy of early warnings for step-like landslides, a tangent angle early warning method based on adaptive local weighted regression is proposed. Driven by deformation acceleration features, the deformation curve is adaptively divided into linear and non-linear regions. A dynamic time window is introduced to optimize the data length for local regression. For linear regions, a local linear regression with an improved cubic weight function is applied, while for non-linear regions, a quadratic polynomial regression based on an adaptive Gaussian weight function is employed. Dynamic weighting and iterative residual correction are used to enhance the model’s sensitivity to local deformation details and its robustness against data noise. Finally, the tangent angle is calculated based on the regression model to achieve graded early warnings. The method is validated using the ALT landslide in the Xiluodu Reservoir area of the Jinshajiang River as a case study. The results show that the proposed method can accurately identify the multi-stage and intermittent acceleration processes of the landslide. The calculated tangent angle curve is highly consistent with the actual deformation trend, and the early warning information is more timely and reliable compared to the traditional method. The proposed method improves the accuracy and timeliness of early warnings for step-like landslides, and its effectiveness and engineering applicability in processing complex deformation data are validated.

关键词

阶跃型滑坡 / 变形监测 / 切线角 / 局部加权回归 / 动态权重

Key words

step-like landslide / deformation monitoring / tangent angle / locally weighted regression / dynamic weights

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基金资助

中国电建集团科技项目(DJ-ZDXM-2021-10)

中国电建集团科技项目(DJ-ZDXM-2019-03)