To clarify the effects and mechanisms of new quality productive forces on agricultural green transformation, this study, based on a systematic theoretical elaboration of how new quality productive forces empower agricultural green transformation, uses a panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022 (The do data not include those of Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan regions. The same below). The relationship between new quality productive forces and agricultural green transformation are analyzed. The findings reveal that new quality productive forces can significantly enhance the level of agricultural green transformation, and the conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness tests. The results of mechanism tests indicate that new quality productive forces improve the level of agricultural green transformation through market incentive effects and public promotion effects. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of new quality productive forces on agricultural green transformation is more pronounced in non-major grain-producing areas and relatively underdeveloped economic regions. Further analysis reveals significant spatial spillover effects of new quality productive forces: they not only promote local agricultural green transformation, but also exert positive spillover effects on neighboring regions through spatial transmission mechanisms. Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate the development of new quality productive forces, improve market mechanisms, optimize public promotion functions, focus on regional heterogeneity, and assist the empowerment of agricultural green transformation by new quality productive forces through multiple channels.
ShiC L. Environmental regulation and green transformation of agriculture in China: Help or resistance[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2025, 33(6): 1181-1194 (in Chinese)
ZhuJ F, DengY Y. Green transformation of agricultural production: Logic of formation, dilemma and practical strategy [J]. Reform of Economic System, 2022(3): 84-89 (in Chinese)
HeK, ZhuR. New quality productive forces promote green and low-carbon development of agriculture: Current foundations and enhancement pathways [J]. Journal of China Agricultural University: Social Sciences, 2025, 42(3): 174-193 (in Chinese)
DaiX W, QiY, LanH X. Theoretical logic and practical path of green transformation of agriculture promoted by new quality productive forces from the perspective of “Productivity-Mode of Production-Relations of Production ”[J]. Journal of Sichuan Normal University: Social Sciences Edition, 2025, 52(1): 87-95,202-203 (in Chinese)
HuY. Theoretical logic and practical path of new quality productivity accelerating agricultural green transformation[J]. Academic Journal of Zhongzhou, 2024(12): 30-38 (in Chinese)
RenB P, ChengZ Y, ZongJ H. Measurement and spatiotemporal evolution of new qualitative development level of manufacturing during the formation of new quality[J]. The Journal of Quantitative and Technical Economics, 2024, 41(12): 5-24 (in Chinese)
ZhaoF, JiL. The scientific connotation, constituent elements, and institutional safeguards mechanisms of new quality productivity [J]. Study & Exploration, 2024(1): 92-101,175 (in Chinese)
ZhaiX Q, XiaX Y. A study on the constitution of mechanism and practice approach of digital economy to accelerate the formation of new quality productivity[J]. Journal of Fujian Normal university: Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition, 2024(1): 44-55,168-169 (in Chinese)
WangW Z. Support and lead the construction of a modern industrial system with intelligent manufacturing[J]. Contemporary Economic Research, 2024(2): 105-115 (in Chinese)
HuangW H, YangC Y, MinR. Impact of new-type agricultural operating entities on green transformation of smallholders’ production [J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2024, 38(5): 69-78 (in Chinese)
LongY, DengK Y, KuangN Y. Can new agricultural business entities drive green production transformation of smallholders: Based on 2020 CRRS data[J]. Research on Economics and Management, 2023, 44(12): 85-99 (in Chinese)
WangJ H, TouL L, MaL L. Analysis of the driving mechanism for farmers’ integration into agricultural green production transformation: A case study of agricultural waste resource utilization [J]. Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University: Social Science, 2023, 23(5): 165-177 (in Chinese)
ZhaoM J, DuR R. New quality productivity promote green transformation of agricultural industry chains: The theoretical logics and the empirical path choice[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2024, 45(5): 723-732 (in Chinese)
GuoH H, HanW Y. Can agricultural new quality productive forces promote the increase of agricultural green total factor productivity[J]. Journal of Southwest University: Social Sciences Edition, 2024, 50(6): 182-196 (in Chinese)
XieM Y, ChengY P, ChangM. The empowerment of agricultural new quality productivity on agricultural total factor productivity: Theoretical mechanism and empirical analysis[J]. Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, 2025(4): 88-100 (in Chinese)
DuS J, YeX X. Logical reasoning, value implication and practical path of green development empowered by new quality productivity[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology: Social Sciences Edition, 2024, 26(6): 52-61 (in Chinese)
KongX Z, XieD D. The theoretical connotation, main characteristics and development path of the new quality agricultural productive forces[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University: Social Sciences Edition, 2024, 41(4): 29-40 (in Chinese)
[39]
魏后凯, 吴广昊. 以新质生产力引领现代化大农业发展[J]. 改革, 2024(5): 1-11
[40]
WeiH K, WuG H. Leading the development of modern agriculture with new quality productivity forces[J]. Reform, 2024(5): 1-11 (in Chinese)
MaX H, YangX X. Promoting high-quality agricultural development by accelerating the formation of new quality productivity[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2024(4): 4-12 (in Chinese)
ZhangQ, LuY C, WanJ. Theoretical logic, practical dilemma and path of promoting agricultural green development led by agricultural new quality productive forces[J]. Reform, 2025(3): 113-123 (in Chinese)
ZhangM H, ZhaoZ W. Intrinsic logic and implementation path of new quality productive forces in promoting common prosperity for farmers and rural areas[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University: Social Sciences Edition, 2025, 42(2): 183-199 (in Chinese)
QinD Z, ChenT T. New-quality productivity enabling agricultural and rural modernization: Theory and empirical study [J]. Statistics and Decision, 2025, 41(6): 11-16 (in Chinese)
ZhuD, YeX L. Agricultural new quality productive force in China: Level measurement and dynamic evolution[J]. Statistics and Decision, 2024, 40(9): 24-30 (in Chinese)
HanW L, ZhangR S, ZhaoF. The measurement of new quality productivity and new driving force of the Chinese economy[J]. The Journal of Quantitative and Technical Economics, 2024, 41(6): 5-25 (in Chinese)
WangG, QianL. Empirical study on the empowerment of agricultural high-quality development by new-type productive forces: from the perspective of green total factor productivity (GTFP)[J]. Reformation & Strategy, 2024, 40(6): 175-186 (in Chinese)
[57]
中华人民共和国国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2011—2022
[58]
National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. China Statistics Yearbook[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2011-2022 (in Chinese)
National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, Ministry of Ecology and Environment. China Environmental Statistical Yearbook[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2011-2022 (in Chinese)
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, Department of Rural Economic System and Management. China Rural Management Statistical Yearbook[M]. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 2011-2018 (in Chinese)
Statistics Department of Social Science, Technology and Cultural Industries, National Bureau of Statistics, Department of Strategic Planning, Ministry of Science and Technology. China Statistical Yearbook of Science and Technology[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2011-2022 (in Chinese)
National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. China Statistics Yearbook on High Technology Industry[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2011-2022 (in Chinese)
Rural Social and Economic Survey Department of National Bureau of Statistics. China Rural Statistical Yearbook[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2011-2022 (in Chinese)
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, Department of Rural Cooperative Economic Guidance. China Rural Cooperative Economic Statistical Yearbook[M]. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 2019-2022
China Academy of Mechanical Industry Information, China Agricultural Machinery Industry Association. China Agricultural Machinery Industry Yearbook[M]. Beijing: China Machine Press, 2011-2022
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, Department of Policy and Reform. China Rural Policy and Reform Statistical Yearbook[M]. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 2019-2022
[75]
LesageJ P, PaceR K. Introduction to Spatial Econometrics[M]. Boca Raton, CRC Press, 2009